Newfield Exploration Co (Newfield Exploration Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Newfield Exploration Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Newfield Exploration Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Newfield Exploration Co (Newfield Exploration Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Newfield Exploration Co (NYSE:NFX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.newfield.com

Newfield Exploration Company is an independent exploration and production company that participates in exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company operates with a portfolio of onshore liquids-rich resource plays. Newfield Exploration has extensive drilling inventories in the United States' drilling areas. The majority of Newfield's operations are located in the Anadarko and Arkoma basins of Oklahoma, Willingston basin of North Dakota and Uinta basin of Utah. It also has oil producing assets offshore China. The majority of Newfield's oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids are sold to a variety of purchasers under short-term contracts.

Executives

Roger B Plank	director
James Kent Wells	director	1700 LINCOLN STREET, SUITE 2800, DENVER CO 80203-4535
Steven W Nance	director	130 EAST RANDOLPH DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60601
Giesinger Edgar R. Jr.	director	1915 SANDGATE FALLS, HOUSTON TX 77062
J Terry Strange	director	700 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 3000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Thomas G Ricks	director	H&S VENTURES LLC, 2101 EAST COAST HWY - 3RD FLOOR, CORONA DEL MAR CA 92625
Timothy D. Yang	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	1415 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 1600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Valerie A Mitchell	officer: VP-Mid-Continent	4 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 100, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Kemp John Randolph Iii	director	3106 NOBLE LAKES LANE, HOUSTON TX 77082-6809
Clay M Gaspar	officer: VP-Mid-Continent	333 W. SHERIDAN AVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Terry W Rathert	officer: EVP and Senior Advisor	4 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 100, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Richard K Stoneburner	director
Howard H Newman	director	C/O PINE BROOK ROAD PARTNERS, LLC, 60 EAST 42ND STREET, SUITE 3014, NEW YORK NY 10165
Joseph H Netherland	director	35 ELECTRA CIRCLE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77382
J M Lacey	director	1726 FORREST PARKWAY, DENVER CO 80220