NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL Energy Partners LP) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NGL Energy Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL Energy Partners LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » NGL Energy Partners LP (NYSE:NGL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

BROG TK TNP EE OSG GPP SMLP PBT BPT MMLP TSX:ENB EPD WMB ET LNG OKE MPLX KMI TSX:TRP CQP

Traded in Other Exchanges

NGLpC.PFD:USA NGLpB.PFD:USA

Address

6120 South Yale Avenue, Suite 805, Tulsa, OK, USA, 74136

Website

https://www.nglenergypartners.com

NGL Energy Partners LP is a us-based firm that owns and operates a vertically integrated energy business. The company's operating segments include Crude Oil Logistics, Water Solutions, and Liquids Logistics. It operates crude oil storage terminals, and owns pipeline injection stations and offers services for the treatment and disposal of wastewater generated from crude oil and natural gas production, and for the disposal of solids, such as tank bottoms and drilling fluids. The firm also supplies natural gas liquids to retailers, wholesalers, refiners and petrochemical plants and sells propane and distillates.

Executives

Bradley P Cooper	officer: CFO & EVP	6120 S YALE AVE SUITE 805, TULSA OK 74136
H Michael Krimbill	director, officer: CEO	8801 S YALE STE 310, TULSA OK 74137
Derek S Reiners	director	100 W. 5TH ST., TULSA OK 74103
James M Collingsworth	director	1100 LOUISIANA 10TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77002
John Ciolek	officer: Exec. Vice President	6120 S. YALE AVE., SUITE 805, TULSA OK 74136
Kurston Patrick Mcmurray	officer: GC, SVP and Secretary	6120 S. YALE AVE., SUITE 805, TULSA OK 74136
Linda J Bridges	officer: CFO & EVP	6120 S. YALE AVE., SUITE 805, TULSA OK 74136
Eig Neptune Equity Aggregator, L.p.	10 percent owner	600 NEW HAMPSHIRE AVE NW, SUITE 1200, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Karlovich Robert W Iii	officer: CFO, Exec. VP and Treasurer	ATLAS PIPELINE PARTNERS, GP, 110 W. 7TH, SUITE 2300, TULSA OK 74119
Brian P. Boland	director	1700 PENNSYLVANIA AVE NW, SUITE 800, WASHINGTON DC 20006
John T Raymond	10 percent owner	THE ENERGY & MINERALS GROUP, 811 MAIN STREET, SUITE 4200, HOUSTON TX 77002
Highstar Capital Ngl Co-invest Manager Llc	10 percent owner	1301 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Highstar Ngl Main Interco Llc	10 percent owner	1301 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Highstar Capital Gp Iv Holdings	10 percent owner	1301 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Ngl Civ A, Llc	10 percent owner	1301 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019