Annaly Capital Management (Annaly Capital Management) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Annaly Capital Management Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Annaly Capital Management (Annaly Capital Management) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Annaly Capital Management Inc (NYSE:NLY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

AGNC STWD RITM BXMT ABR ARI RC LADR TWO CMTG PMT MFA CIM FBRT EFC ARR BRSP RWT DX KREF

Traded in Other Exchanges

NLYpI.PFD:USA NLYpG.PFD:USA NLYpF.PFD:USA AAYA:Germany AAYA:Germany

Address

1211 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY, USA, 10036

Website

https://www.annaly.com

Annaly Capital Management Inc is an American mortgage real estate investment trust. The Company owns a portfolio of real estate related investments, including mortgage pass-through certificates, collateralized mortgage obligations, credit risk transfer securities, other securities representing interests in or obligations backed by pools of mortgage loans, residential mortgage loans and mortgage servicing rights. Its business objective is to generate net income for distribution to its stockholders and optimize its returns through prudent management of its diversified investment strategies. The Company's three investment groups are comprised of the following: Annaly Agency Group, Annaly Residential Credit Group, Annaly Mortgage Servicing Rights Group.

Executives

David L Finkelstein	officer: Chief Investment Officer	ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 1211 AVE. OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Scott Wede	director	ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Manon Laroche	director	ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Martin Laguerre	director	C/O BGC PARTNERS, INC., 499 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Eric A. Reeves	director	ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 1211 AVE. OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Ilker Ertas	officer: Head of Securitized Products	1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Steven Francis Campbell	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Thomas Edward Hamilton	director	211 STUYVESANT AVE, RYE NY 10580
Anthony C Green	officer: Chief Legal Officer	ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 1211 AVE. OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Timothy P Coffey	officer: Chief Credit Officer	ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 1211 AVE. OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Serena Wolfe	officer: Chief Financial Officer	ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 1211 AVE. OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Glenn Votek	director, officer: Interim CEO and President	1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 2902, NEW YORK NY 10036
John H Schaefer	director	1211 AVE. OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Katherine Beirne Fallon	director	C/O ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Kevin Keyes	officer: Managing Director	1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 2902, NEW YORK NY 10036