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Nuveen Pennsylvania Quality Municipalome Fund (Nuveen Pennsylvania Quality Municipalome Fund) Predictability Rank


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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nuveen Pennsylvania Quality Municipalome Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Nuveen Pennsylvania Quality Municipalome Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Nuveen Pennsylvania Quality Municipalome Fund (Nuveen Pennsylvania Quality Municipalome Fund) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Nuveen Pennsylvania Quality Municipal Income Fund (NYSE:NQP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
NML HRZN ISD SCU IGD JPI RMT MMU HPS FEI BLK BX OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN KKR APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
333 West Wacker Drive, Chicago, IL, USA, 60606
Website
https://www.nuveen.com
Nuveen Pennsylvania Quality Municipal Income Fund is a diversified closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to provide current income exempt from regular federal and Pennsylvania income taxes and to enhance portfolio value relative to the Pennsylvania municipal bond market by investing in tax-exempt Pennsylvania municipal bonds that the Fund's investment adviser believes are underrated or undervalued or that represent municipal market sectors that are undervalued.
Executives
Saba Capital Management, L.p. 10 percent owner 405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Boaz Weinstein 10 percent owner 405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Trey Iii Stenersen officer: Vice President 333 WEST WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Brett Black officer: Chief Compliance Officer 333 WEST WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
John M. Mccann officer: Vice President 333 WEST WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Lancellotta Amy B.r. other: Trustee 333 W. WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN, STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Joanne Medero other: Trustee 333 W. WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN, STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Matthew Iii Thornton other: Trustee 3610 HACKS CROSS ROAD, MEMPHIS TN 38125
Deann Morgan officer: Vice President TWO WORLD FINANCIAL CENTER, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10281
Jon Scott Meissner officer: Vice President 333 W WACKER DRIVE, STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Jacques M Longerstaey officer: Vice President 333 WEST WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Brian J Lockhart officer: Vice President 333 WEST WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
E. Scott Wickerham officer: Vice President C/O NUVEEN, STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Demark L Winget officer: Vice President C/O NUVEEN INVESTMENTS, 333 W WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
William T. Meyers officer: Vice President C/O NUVEEN, 333 W. WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606