Insight Enterprises (Insight Enterprises) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Insight Enterprises Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Insight Enterprises (Insight Enterprises) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Insight Enterprises Inc (NAS:NSIT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

IEI:Germany IEI:Germany

Address

2701 E. Insight Way, Chandler, AZ, USA, 85286

Website

http://www.insight.com

Insight Enterprises Inc is a Fortune 500 global IT provider primarily engaged in helping businesses of all sizes, large enterprises, governments, schools, and health care organizations. The company has three geographic operating segments: North America, EMEA, and APAC. It generates maximum revenue from North America segment. The company provides digital innovation, cloud/data center transformation, connected workforce, and supply chain optimization solutions and services.

Executives

Valueact Capital Master Fund, L.p.	director, other: See Remarks	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Samuel C Cowley	officer: SVP, Gen'l Counsel & Secretary	2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE, PHOENIX AZ 85043
Timothy A Crown	director, officer: CEO, President	6820 S HARL AVE, TEMPE AZ 85283
Adrian P Gregory	officer: President, EMEA	2701 E INSIGHT WAY, CHANDLER AZ 85286
Rachael A Bertrandt	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	INSIGHT ENTEPRISES, INC., 2701 E INSIGHT WAY, CHANDLER AZ 85286
Glynis Bryan	officer: CFO	5500 WAYZATA BOULEVARD, SUITE 600, GOLDEN VALLEY MN 55416
Kathleen S Pushor	director	8575 E VOLTAIRE AVE, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
Daniel Burger	officer: President INA	6820 S HARL AVENUE, TEMPE AZ 85283
Sumana Nallapati	officer: Chief Information Officer	6820 S HARL AVENUE, TEMPE AZ 85283
Jennifer M Vasin	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	2701 E INSIGHT WAY, CHANDLER AZ 85286
Valueact Capital Management, Llc	director, other: See Remarks	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Alexander L. Baum	director	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, FOURTH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Valueact Capital Management, L.p.	director, other: See Remarks	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Valueact Holdings, L.p.	director, other: See Remarks	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Valueact Holdings Gp, Llc	director, other: See Remarks	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129