Coca-Cola Co (Coca-Cola Co) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Coca-Cola Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Coca-Cola Co (Coca-Cola Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Non-Alcoholic » Coca-Cola Co (NYSE:KO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

KO:Peru KO:Mexico 1KO:Italy CCC3d:UK 0QZK:UK CCC:Germany CCC3:Germany CCC3:Germany CCC3:Germany CCC3:Germany KO:Chile COLA:Canada COCA34:Brazil KO:Austria KO:Argentina

Address

One Coca-Cola Plaza, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30313

Website

https://www.coca-colacompany.com

Founded in 1886, Atlanta-headquartered Coca-Cola is the world's largest nonalcoholic beverage company, with a strong portfolio of 200 brands covering key categories including carbonated soft drinks, water, sports, energy, juice, and coffee. Together with bottlers and distribution partners, the company sells finished beverage products bearing Coca-Cola and licensed brands through retailers and food-service locations in more than 200 countries and regions globally. Coca-Cola generates around two thirds of its total revenues overseas, with a significant portion from emerging economies in Latin America and Asia-Pacific.

Executives

James Quincey	other: Group President	THE COCA-COLA COMPANY, ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA, ATLANTA GA 30313
Henrique Braun	other: Operating Unit President	C/O THE COCA-COLA COMPANY, ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA, ATLANTA GA 30313
Beatriz R Perez	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA, ATLANTA GA 30313
Monica Howard Douglas	officer: SVP & General Counsel	535 MADISON AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
John Murphy	other: Group President	THE COCA-COLA COMPANY, ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA, ATLANTA GA 30313
Thomas Sinnickson Gayner	director	C/O MARKEL CORP, 4521 HIGHWOODS PARKWAY, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Amity Millhiser	director	C/O THE COCA-COLA COMPANY, ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA, ATLANTA GA 30313
Manuel Arroyo	other: Group President	THE COCA-COLA COMPANY, ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA, ATLANTA GA 30313
Nikolaos Koumettis	other: Group President	THE COCA-COLA COMPANY, ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA, ATLANTA GA 30313
Nancy Quan	officer: Senior Vice President	THE COCA-COLA COMPANY, ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA, ATLANTA GA 30313
Erin L May	officer: Vice President & Controller	C/O THE COCA-COLA COMPANY, ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA, ATLANTA GA 30313
Bruno Pietracci	other: President, Latin America OU	C/O THE COCA-COLA COMPANY, ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA, ATLANTA GA 30313
Brian John Smith	other: Group President	THE COCA-COLA COMPANY, ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA, ATLANTA GA 30313
Mark Randazza	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	THE COCA-COLA COMPANY, ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA, ATLANTA GA 30313
Allen Herbert A Iii	director	ALLEN & COMPANY LLC, 711 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022