O-I Glass (O-I Glass) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

O-I Glass Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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O-I Glass (O-I Glass) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Packaging & Containers » O-I Glass Inc (NYSE:OI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2WZ:Germany 2WZ:Germany

Address

One Michael Owens Way, Perrysburg, OH, USA, 43551

Website

https://www.o-i.com

O-I Glass is the world's largest manufacturer of glass bottles; 70% of its revenue comes from outside the United States. O-I has a market-leading position in key markets such as Europe, North America, and Brazil, among others. Beer is the primary end market for O-I's glass bottles, which are also used for wine, soda, spirits, condiments, and food. In the coming years, O-I is looking to maintain or expand its dominant positions in Europe, North America, and South America.

Executives

Andres Alberto Lopez	officer: VP, President of Latin America	ONE MICHAEL OWENS WAY, PERRYSBURG OH 43551
Vitaliano Torno	officer: President, O-I Europe	O-I EUROPE SARL, EU HQ MEX EN FARAZ 5, VUFFLENS-LA-VILLE V8 1302
Arnaud Aujouannet	officer: SVP & Chief Sales & Marketing	ONE MICHAEL OWENS WAY, PLAZA ONE, PERRYSBURG OH 43551
Clark David V Ii	director	C/O O-I GLASS, INC., ONE MICHAEL OWENS WAY, PLAZA 1, PERRYSBURG OH 43551
Darrow A Abrahams	officer: SVP, GC & Corporate Secretary	ONE MICHAEL OWENS WAY, PERRYSBURG OH 43551
Mary Beth Wilkinson	officer: Senior VP, GC & Secretary	2350 GREEN ROAD, SUITE 100, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Samuel R. Chapin	director	940 WINTER STREET, C/O PERKINELMER, WALTHAM MA 02451
Catherine I Slater	director	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Peter S Hellman	director	ONE BAXTER PARKWAY, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Carol A Dudley-williams	director	912 W. SUGNET RD., MIDLAND MI 48640
John H Walker	director	233 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
Timothy Connors	officer: President, O-I Asia Pacific	36 BURWOOD ROAD, HAWTHORN, VIC C3 3195
Moyano Giancarlo Currarino	officer: SVP, Chief Tech & SC Officer	ONE MICHAEL OWENS WAY, PLAZA ONE, PERRYSBURG OH 43551
John Humphrey	director	ENPRO INDUSTRIES, INC., 5605 CARNEGIE BLVD., SUITE 500, CHARLOTTE NC 28209
Joseph D Rupp	director	QUANEX BUILDING PRODUCTS CORPORATION, 1800 W LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1500, HOUSTON TX 77027