Oil States International (Oil States International) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2001. Start your Free Trial

What is Oil States International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Oil States International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Oil States International Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Oil States International's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Oil States International (Oil States International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Oil States International Inc (NYSE:OIS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

OI2:Germany OI2:Germany

Address

Three Allen Center, 333 Clay Street, Suite 4620, Houston, TX, USA, 77002

Website

https://www.oilstatesintl.com

Oil States International Inc is a provider of manufactured products and services to the energy, industrial and military sectors. Manufactured products include engineered capital equipment as well as products consumed in the drilling, well construction and production of oil and natural gas. The company sells its products and services to national oil and natural gas companies, oil and natural gas companies, onshore and offshore drilling companies and other oilfield services, defense and industrial companies. The company operates through three business segments, Offshore/Manufactured Products, Well Site Services and Downhole Technologies.

Executives

Philip Scott Moses	officer: Executive VP,Offshore Products	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 4620, HOUSTON TX 77002
Denise Castillo-rhodes	director	8847 W. SAM HOUSTON PKWY. NORTH, SUITE 200, HOUSTON TX 77040
Christopher E Cragg	officer: Vice President Tubular Service
Christopher T Seaver	director	3300 NORTH SAM HOUSTON PKWY EAST, HOUSTON TX 77032-3411
Cindy B Taylor	officer: SVP and CFO
Brian E. Taylor	officer: VP, Controller & CAO	P.O. BOX 60068, HOUSTON TX 77205-0068
Lias Jeff Steen	officer: Vice President, HR & Legal	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 4620, HOUSTON TX 77002
Van Kleef William T	director
Hallie A. Vanderhider	director	600 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 3250, HOUSTON TX 77002
Darrell E Hollek	director	1201 LAKE ROBBINS DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
E Joseph Wright	director	550 WEST TEXAS AVENUE, SUITE 1300, MIDLAND TX 79701
Robert L Potter	director
Lawrence R Dickerson	director	15415 KATY FREEWAY STE 100, HOUSTON TX 77094
B.v. Geodynamics	10 percent owner	C/O LIME ROCK MANAGEMENT, 274 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, SUITE 3, WESTPORT CT 06880
Lloyd A Hajdik	officer: Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 4620, HOUSTON TX 77002