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Paymentus Holdings (Paymentus Holdings) Predictability Rank


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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Paymentus Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Paymentus Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Paymentus Holdings (Paymentus Holdings) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Paymentus Holdings Inc (NYSE:PAY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
EVCM RAMP DOCN AVDX NTCT SWI PAYO EVTC CSGS ODD MSFT ORCL ADBE PANW SNPS VMW FTNT CRWD PLTR SQ
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
11605 N. Community House Road, Suite 300, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28277
Website
https://www.paymentus.com
Paymentus Holdings Inc provides electronic bill presentment and payment services, enterprise customer communication and self-service revenue management to billers and financial institutions through a Software-as-a-Service, (SaaS), secure, omni-channel technology platform. The platform integrates into a biller's core financial and operating systems to provide flexible and secure access to payment processing of credit cards, debit cards, eChecks and digital wallets across a number of channels including online, mobile, IVR, call center, chatbot and voice-based assistants. The Company generates revenue from payment transaction fees processed through the Company's platform. The fees are generated as a percentage of transaction value or a specified fee per transaction.
Executives
Andrew A. Gerber officer: General Counsel and Secretary 18390 NE 68TH ST., REDMOND WA 98052
Gerasimos (jerry) Portocalis officer: Chief Commercial Officer 18390 NE 68TH ST., REDMOND WA 98052
Arun Oberoi director 100 EAST DAVIE STREET, RALEIGH NC 27601
Sanjay Kalra officer: SVP and CFO HARMONIC INC., 4300 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Paul E. Seamon officer: Interim CFO 18390 NE 68TH ST, REDMOND WA 98052
Matt Parson officer: Chief Financial Officer 18390 NE 68TH ST., REDMOND WA 98052
Gary Trainor director 18390 NE 68TH ST., REDMOND WA 98052
Jody R Davids director C/O PREMIER INC., 13034 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Dushyant Sharma director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, President and CEO 18390 NE 68TH ST., REDMOND WA 98052
William Ingram director C/O LEAP WIRELESS INTERNATIONAL, INC., 5887 COPLEY DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92111
Accel-kkr Growth Capital Partners Ii, Lp 10 percent owner 2500 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 300, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Accel-kkr Growth Capital Partners Ii Strategic Fund, Lp 10 percent owner 2500 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 300, MENLO PARK CA 94025
John C Morrow officer: General Counsel and Secretary 11100 NE 8TH ST #600, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Accel-kkr Growth Capital Partners Iii, Lp 10 percent owner 2500 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 300, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Accel-kkr Capital Partners Cv Iii, Lp 10 percent owner 2500 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 300, MENLO PARK CA 94025