Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Piedmont Office Realty Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Piedmont Office Realty Trust's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Piedmont Office Realty Trust (Piedmont Office Realty Trust) Business Description
Piedmont Office Realty Trust Inc is a real estate investment trust engaged in the acquisition, development, and management of commercial real estate properties throughout the U.S. The company's real estate portfolio is mainly composed of office properties located in the majority of American metropolitan areas. Piedmont derives majority of its revenue in the form of rental income from tenants in mid- to long-term lease agreements. The vast majority of the company's revenue comes from the leasing of its assets in Washington D.C., New York City, Chicago, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Dallas, and Boston. Piedmont's large customers in terms of rental revenue are U.S. Government entities, business services companies, and financial institutions.
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