PENN Entertainment (PENN Entertainment) Predictability Rank

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What is PENN Entertainment Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PENN Entertainment Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

PENN Entertainment Predictability Rank Related Terms

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PENN Entertainment (PENN Entertainment) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » PENN Entertainment Inc (NAS:PENN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PN1:Germany PN1:Germany

Address

825 Berkshire Boulevard, Suite 200, Wyomissing, PA, USA, 19610

Website

https://www.pngaming.com

Penn Entertainment's origins date back to its 1972 racetrack opening in Pennsylvania. Today, Penn operates 43 properties across 20 states and 12 brands (such as Hollywood Casino and Ameristar), with land-based casinos representing 90% of total sales in 2022 (10% was from the interactive segment, which includes sports, iGaming, and media revenue). The retail portfolio generates high-30% EBITDAR margins and helps position the company to obtain licenses for the digital wagering markets. Additionally, Penn's media assets, theScore and ESPN (starting with its partnership launch Nov. 14, 2023), provide access to sports betting/iGaming technology and clientele, helping it form a leading digital position.

Executives

Christopher Byron Rogers	officer: EVP and Chief Strategy Officer	825 BERKSHIRE BLVD., WYOMISSING PA 19610
Jay A Snowden	officer: EVP-Chief Operating Officer	825 BERKSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 200, WYOMISSING PA 19610
Jane Scaccetti	director	3111 W ALLEGHENY AVE, PHILADELPHIA PA 19132
Felicia Hendrix	officer: EVP and CFO	825 BERKSHIRE BLVD., WYOMISSING PA 19610
David A Handler	director	845 BERKSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 200, WYOMISSING PA 19610
Kohn Barbara Shattuck	director	PENN NATIONAL GAMING, INC, 825 BERKSHIRE BLVE, SUITE 200, WYOMISSING PA 19610
Christine Labombard	officer: SVP and CAO	825 BERKSHIRE BOULEVARD, WYOMISSING PA 19610
Saul Reibstein	officer: EVP-Finance, CFO & Treasurer	C/O VISHAY PRECISION GROUP, INC., 3 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 150, MALVERN PA 19355
Gupta Vimla Black	director	825 BERKSHIRE BLVD., WYOMISSING PA 19610
Todd George	officer: EVP, Operations	825 BERKSHIRE BLVD., WYOMISSING PA 19610
Marla Kaplowitz	director	825 BERKSHIRE BLVD., WYOMISSING PA 19610
Ronald J Naples	director	96 S. GEORGE STREET, SUITE 500, YORK PA 17401
Peter M Carlino	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman	845 BERKSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 200, WYOMISSING PA 19610
Harper H. Ko	officer: EVP, CLO and Sec.	7250 S. TENAYA WAY, SUITE 100, LAS VEGAS NV 89113
Carl Sottosanti	officer: SVP,Gen Counsel & Secretary	825 BERKSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 200, WYOMISSING PA 19610