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PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PennantPark Floating Rate Capital) Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Predictability Rank Related Terms

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PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PennantPark Floating Rate Capital) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd (NYSE:PFLT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HTD CCAP EOI VVR FAX TRIN FFC BOE ECC TCPC BLK BX OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN KKR APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
PFLT:Israel 22P:Germany
Address
1691 Michigan Avenue, Miami, FL, USA, 33139
Website
https://www.pennantpark.com
PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd is a closed-end, externally managed, non-diversified investment company. Its investment objectives are to generate current income and capital appreciation by investing in Floating Rate Loans and other investments made to U.S. middle-market companies. The company believes that Floating Rate Loans to U.S. middle-market companies offer attractive risk-reward to investors due to the limited amount of capital available for such companies and the potential for rising interest rates. The company generate revenue in the form of interest income on the debt securities and dividends.
Executives
Allorto Richard T Jr officer: CFO and Treasurer C/O PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 1350 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10019
Jose A Briones director 55 PLEASANTVILLE ROAD, NEW VERNON NJ 07976
Richard Cheung officer: See Remarks C/O CAREY CREDIT INCOME FUND, 330 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Samuel L Katz director 9 WEST 57TH ST, NEW YORK NY 10019
Adam K Bernstein director C/O PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 445 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Aviv Efrat officer: CFO C/O PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 445 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Arthur H Penn director, officer: Chairman and CEO, other: Investment Adviser
Jeffrey Flug director C/O PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 445 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Marshall Brozost director C/O PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 445 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022