Parke Bancorp (Parke Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Parke Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Parke Bancorp (Parke Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Parke Bancorp Inc (NAS:PKBK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

601 Delsea Drive, Washington Township, NJ, USA, 08080

Website

https://www.parkebank.com

Parke Bancorp Inc operates as a commercial bank providing personal and financial services to individuals and small to mid-sized businesses in various states of the USA. The bank offers services such as loan products, deposit services, and other financial products through its retail branches and other channels to its customers. Its lending businesses are commercial real estate lending, residential real estate lending, and construction lending among others. The Company operates one reportable segment of business, community banking.

Executives

Jeffrey H Kripitz	director	601 DELSEA DRIVE, WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP NJ 08080
Vito S Pantilione	director, officer: President	601 DELSEA DRIVE, WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP NJ 08080
Nicholas J Pantilione	officer: SVP & Chief Lending Officer	601 DELSEA DRIVE, SEWELL NJ 08080
Ralph Martin Gallo	officer: Executive VP/COO	601 DELSEA DRIVE, SEWELL NJ 08080
Arret F Dobson	director	601 DELSEA DRIVE, WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP NJ 08080
Daniel J Dalton	director	601 DELSEA DRIVE, WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP NJ 08080
Celestino R Pennoni	director	601 DELSEA DRIVE, WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP NJ 08080
Paul E Palmieri	officer: SVP & Chief Credit Officer	601 DELSEA DRIVE, SEWELL NJ 08080
Edward Infantolino	director	601 DELSEA DRIVE, WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP NJ 08080
Sheppard Jack C Jr	director	601 DELSEA DRIVE, WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP NJ 08080
John S Kaufman	officer: SVP and CFO	1902 LONG HILL ROAD, MILLINGTON NJ 07946
John F Hawkins	officer: CFO/SVP	601 DELSEA DRIVE, SEWELL NJ 08080
Anthony J Jannetti	director	601 DELSEA DRIVE, WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP NJ 08080
Elizabeth A Milavsky	officer: Chief Operating Officer/EVP	601 DELSEA DRIVE, WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP NJ 08080
Fred G Choate	director	601 DELSEA DRIVE, WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP NJ 08080