What is Primo Water Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Primo Water Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Primo Water (Primo Water) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1200 Britannia Road East, Mississauga, ON, CAN, L4W 4T5
Primo Water is a pure-play water provider with a variety of products and services, including water delivery, exchange, refill/filtration, and water dispensers in 21 countries, mostly in North America and Europe. The firm usually initiates the customer relationship with the sale of water dispensers, and then generates recurring revenue via the water direct and exchange services (two thirds of total sales) by delivering large-format (typically three gallons or greater) water bottles to residential and commercial customers for use atop or inside the dispensers. Primo generates 75% of revenue and all its profits in North America, while its European operation has yet to turn a profit.
Executives
| Mercedes Romero |
officer: Chief Procurement Officer |
4221 WEST BOY SCOUT BOULEVARD, TAMPA FL 33607 |
| Britta Bomhard |
director |
500 CHARLES EWING BLVD, EWING NJ 08628 |
| Derek R. Lewis |
director |
1150 ASSEMBLY DR., SUITE 800, TAMPA FL 33607-4853 |
| Lori Tauber Marcus |
director |
C/O THE CHILDREN'S PLACE, 500 PLAZA DRIVE, SECAUCUS NJ 07094 |
| Archana Singh |
director |
111 RIVER STREET, HOBOKEN NJ 08559 |
| Steven P Stanbrook |
director |
1525 HOWE ST, RACINE WI 53403 |
| Billy D Prim |
director |
101 NORTH CHERRY STREET, SUITE 501, WINSTON SALEM NC 27101 |
| Susan E. Cates |
director |
101 NORTH CHERRY STREET, SUITE 501, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27101 |
| Eric J Foss |
director |
|
| Thomas Harrington |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
5519 IDLEWILD AVENUE, TAMPA FL 33634 |
| William Alan Jamieson |
officer: Global CIO |
4221 WEST BOY SCOUT BOULEVARD, TAMPA FL 33607 |
| David W. Hass |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
101 NORTH CHERRY STREET, SUITE 501, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27101 |
| Jason R Ausher |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
110 CORPORATE DRIVE, SUITE 10, PORTSMOUTH NH 03801 |
| Anne Melaragni |
officer: Chief Human Resources Officer |
4221 WEST BOY SCOUT BOULEVARD, TAMPA FL 33607 |
| Marni Morgan Poe |
officer: Chief Legal Officer/Secretary |
5519 W. IDLEWILD AVENUE, TAMPA FL 33634 |
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