What is Cassava Sciences Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Cassava Sciences Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Cassava Sciences (Cassava Sciences) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
6801 N. Capital of Texas Highway, Suite 300, Building 1, Austin, TX, USA, 78731
Cassava Sciences Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company engaged in developing a scientific approach for the treatment and detection of Alzheimer's disease. Its therapeutic product candidate is called simufilam, and it is a novel treatment for Alzheimer's disease; and investigational diagnostic product candidate is called SavaDx, and it is a novel way to detect the presence of Alzheimer's disease from a small sample of blood, possibly years before the overt appearance of clinical symptoms.
Executives
| Sanford Robertson |
director |
ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING C SUITE 410, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129 |
| Richard Barry |
director |
285 MARGALITA DRIVE, SAN RAFAEL CA 94901 |
| Robert Christopher Cook |
officer: SVP & General Counsel |
6801 N. CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, BUILDING 1, SUITE 300, AUSTIN TX 78731 |
| James William Kupiec |
officer: Chief Clinical Dev. Officer |
7801 N CAPITAL OF TEXAS HIGHWAY, SUITE 260, AUSTIN TX 78731 |
| Eric Schoen |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
7801 N. CAPITAL OF TX HWY, SUITE 260, AUSTIN TX 78731 |
| Remi Barbier |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, Chairman of the Board |
|
| Armistice Capital Master Fund Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
C/O ARMISTICE CAPITAL, LLC, 510 MADISON AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Armistice Capital, Llc |
10 percent owner |
510 MADISON AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Steven Boyd |
10 percent owner |
510 MADISON AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| O Donnell Michael J |
director |
|
| Robert Z Gussin |
director |
|
| Scannon Patrick J Md Phd |
director |
C/O XOMA, LTD., 2910 SEVENTH STREET, BERKELEY CA 94710 |
| Saira Ramasastry |
director |
501 CANAL BLVD., RICHMOND CA 94804 |
| Nadav Friedmann |
director, officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
|
| Sabretooth Master Fund, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 50TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174 |
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