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Q.E.P. Co (Q.E.P. Co) Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Q.E.P. Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Q.E.P. Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Q.E.P. Co (Q.E.P. Co) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Q.E.P. Co Inc (OTCPK:QEPC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SCX DMFG CVR TBLT EML HKSE:00669 SNA SWK LECO TTC OSTO:SKF B RBC TSE:6586 TKR XSWX:SFSN OSTO:HUSQ A SZSE:002444 TSE:9962 XTER:GIL TSE:6141
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1001 Broken Sound Parkway North West, Suite A, Boca Raton, FL, USA, 33487
Website
https://www.qep.com
Q.E.P. Co Inc is a provider of flooring and industrial solutions. The company is a manufacturer, marketer, and distributor of hardwood and laminate flooring, flooring installation tools, adhesives and flooring related products targeted for the professional installer as well as the do-it-yourselfer. It also provides industrial tools to the industrial trades under brand names including QEP, ROBERTS, Capitol, Harris Wood, Fausfloor, Vitrex, Homelux, TileRite, PRCI, Nupla, HISCO, Plasplugs, Ludell, Porta-Nails, Tomecanic, Benetiere, and Elastiment. The company sells its products to home improvement retail centers, specialty distribution outlets, municipalities and industrial solution providers in an approx 50 states and throughout the world.
Executives
Lawrence P Levine officer: SVP and General Counsel 1001 BROKEN SOUND PARKWAY NW, SUITE A, BOCA RATON FL 33487
Robert G Walters director 1001 BROKEN SOUND PARKWAY NW SUITE A, BOCA RATON FL 33487
Kenneth Weiss officer: SVP Commercial Sales 1001 BROKEN SOUND PARKWAY NW SUITE A, BOCA RATON FL 33487
David L Kreilein director 2930 INDUSTRIEAL ST, WISCONSIN RAPIDS WI 54495-8020
Muir Robert W Jr director
Laura M Holm director C/O Q.E.P. CO., INC., 1001 BROKEN SOUND PARKWAY, NW, SUITE A, BOCA RATON FL 33487
James Brower officer: Chief Operating Officer C/O Q.E.P. CO., INC., 1001 BROKEN SOUND PARKWAY, NW, SUITE A, BOCA RATON FL 33487
Jamie Clingan officer: Vice President Marketing C/O Q.E.P. CO., INC., 1001 BROKEN SOUND PARKWAY, NW, SUITE A, BOCA RATON FL 33487
Bruce Maclaren officer: Chief Executive Officer Europe C/O Q.E.P. CO., INC., 1001 BROKEN SOUND PARKWAY, NW, SUITE A, BOCA RATON FL 33487
S Scott Fitzpatrick officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O Q.E.P. CO., INC., 1001 BROKEN SOUND PARKWAY, NW, SUITE A, BOCA RATON FL 33487
Stuart F Fleischer officer: Chief Financial Officer
Randall Paulfus officer: Interim CFO C/O PC UNIVERSE, INC., 504 NW 77TH STREET, BOCA RATON FL 33487
Richard A Brooke officer: Senior Vice President C/O Q.E.P. CO., INC., 1001 BROKEN SOUND PARKWAY, BOCA RATON FL 33487
Eric Demaree officer: EVP, Sales C/O Q.E.P. CO., INC., 1081 HOLLAND DRIVE, BOCA RATON FL 33487
Susan J Gould 10 percent owner