Royal Gold (Royal Gold) Predictability Rank

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What is Royal Gold Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Royal Gold Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Royal Gold (Royal Gold) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Royal Gold Inc (NAS:RGLD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RG3:Germany RG3:Germany

Address

1144 15th Street, Suite 2500, Denver, CO, USA, 80202

Website

https://www.royalgold.com

Royal Gold Inc enquires and manages precious metal royalties and streams, with a focus on gold. The company operates by purchasing a percentage of the metal produced from a mineral property for an initial payment, without assuming responsibility of mining operations. Similarly, precious metal streams are purchase agreements with mine operators providing the right to purchase all or a portion of one or more metals produced from a mine, in exchange for an upfront deposit payment. Generally Royal Gold does not conduct any work on the properties in which it holds royalty and streaming assets. The company owns a portfolio of producing, development, evaluation, and exploration royalties and streams, and the majority of group revenue is generated from Canada, Mexico, Chile, and the United States.

Executives

Martin Raffield	officer: Vice President, Operations	P.O. BOX 1649, POLSON MT 59860
Mark Isto	officer: Vice President Operations	1144 15TH STREET, SUITE 2500, DENVER CO 80202
William M. Hayes	director	1144 15TH STREET, SUITE 2500, DENVER CO 80202
Daniel Breeze	officer: VP Corp Dev of RGLD Gold AG	KIRCHBODENSTRASSE 16, Z, THALWIL V8 8800
Paul Libner	officer: VP & General Counsel	845 BRAESHEATHER PL, HIGHLANDS RANCH CO 80216
Randy Shefman	officer: VP & General Counsel	921 SOUTH HIGH STREET, DENVER CO 80209
Laura Gill	officer: VP, Corp. Sec. & CCO	10499 EAST ABERDEEN AVE, ENGLEWOOD CO 80111
Fabiana Chubbs	director	1144 15TH STREET, SUITE 2500, DENVER CO 80202
Margaret Mccandless	officer: Asst. GC, Corp Secretary & CCO	C/O ROYAL GOLD, 1144 15TH STREET, SUITE 2500, DENVER CO 80202
Tony A Jensen	director, officer: President and CEO	620 E HEARTSTRONG STREET, SUPERIOR CO 80027
Bruce Christopher Kirchhoff	officer: VP and General Counsel	1660 WYNKOOP, #1000, DENVER CO 80202
Ronald J Vance	director	C/O ROYAL GOLD, 1144 15TH STREET, SUITE 2500, DENVER CO 80202
Sybil E Veenman	director	C/O ROYAL GOLD, INC., 1144 15TH STREET, SUITE 2500, DENVER CO 80202
Jamie C Sokalsky	director	C/O ROYAL GOLD, 1144 15TH STREET, SUITE 2500, DENVER CO 80202
William Holmes Heissenbuttel	officer: VP Corporate Development	1144 15TH STREET, SUITE 2500, DENVER CO 80202