1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Sally Beauty Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Sally Beauty Holdings (Sally Beauty Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3001 Colorado Boulevard, Denton, TX, USA, 76210
Sally Beauty Holdings Inc is a professional beauty-products retailer based in the United States. Sally Beauty operates throughout the United States, Puerto Rico, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, France, Ireland, Spain, Germany, and the Netherlands. The company operates through two business segments: Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group. Product offerings include hair color and care, hair dryers and hair-styling appliances, nail care, skin care, and others.
Executives
| Denise Paulonis |
director, officer: President & CEO |
8000 BENT BRANCH DRIVE, IRVING TX 75063 |
| Lawrence Molloy |
director |
19601 N 27TH AVENUE, PHOENIX AZ 85027 |
| Rachel Rothe Bishop |
director |
2021 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 600, OAKBROOK IL 60523 |
| Jeffrey N Boyer |
director |
100 PIER 1 PLACE, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Susan R Mulder |
director |
3001 COLORADO BLVD., DENTON TX 76210 |
| Scott C Sherman |
officer: SVP & CHRO |
3001 COLORADO BLVD., DENTON TX 76210 |
| Robert R Mcmaster |
director, other: Chairman of the Board |
907-B EAST MAIN STREET, HUMBLE TX 77338-4662 |
| Platz Marlo Michelle Cormier |
officer: SVP, CFO |
2180 RUTHERFORD ROAD, CARLSBAD CA 92008 |
| John A Miller |
director |
3001 COLORADO BLVD, DENTON TX 76210 |
| Marshall E Eisenberg |
director |
TWO NORTH LASALLE STREET, CHICAGO IL 60602 |
| Edward W Rabin |
director |
200 WEST MADISON STE.3900, CHICAGO IL 60606 |
| Pamela K Kohn |
officer: See Remarks |
3001 COLORADO BLVD, DENTON TX 76210 |
| Mark Gregory Spinks |
officer: See Remarks |
3001 COLORADO BLVD., DENTON TX 76210 |
| Linda Heasley |
director |
4 BATTERYMARCH PARK, QUINCY MA 02169 |
| John M Henrich |
officer: See Remarks |
3001 COLORADO BLVD, DENTON TX 76210 |
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