What is Silver Bay Realty Trust Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Silver Bay Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Silver Bay Realty Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms
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Silver Bay Realty Trust (Silver Bay Realty Trust) Business Description
Silver Bay Realty Trust Corp was incorporated in Maryland in June 2012. The Company is engaged in acquisition, renovation, leasing, and management of single-family properties in select markets in the United States. As of December 31, 2013, the company owned 5,642 single-family properties in Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, excluding properties held for sale. The Company conducts its business and owns all of its properties through Silver Bay Operating Partnership L.P., or the Operating Partnership, a Delaware limited partnership. acquire single-family properties through a variety of acquisition channels, including brokers, multiple listing services, short sales, foreclosure auctions, online auctions, and bulk purchases from institutions or investor groups. The Company face competition from individual investors, private pools of capital and other institutional buyers which may increase the prices for properties that they would like to purchase and reduce its ability to achieve its desired portfolio size or expected yields. They also compete for desirable residents against the same entities as well as multifamily lessors. The Company's properties are subject to various covenants, laws, and ordinances, and certain of its properties are also subject to the rules of the various homeowners' associations where such properties are located.
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