SeaChange International (SeaChange International) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SeaChange International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SeaChange International (SeaChange International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » SeaChange International Inc (OTCPK:SEAC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

177 Huntington Avenue, Suite 1703, PMB 73480, Boston, MA, USA, 02115

Website

https://www.seachange.com

SeaChange International Inc is a provider of multiscreen video solutions for television service providers, telecommunications companies, satellite operators, and media companies. The business has two product areas: multiscreen video back-office and advertising and video gateway software solutions. The firm's solutions facilitate aggregation, licensing, management, and distribution of video and advertising content for its customers. The company derives revenue from sales of hardware, software, systems, and services in multiple-element arrangements. Roughly half of the firm's revenue is generated in the United States, with the rest in Europe, Middle East, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific regions.

Executives

Karen Singer	10 percent owner	212 VACCARO DRIVE, CRESSKILL NJ 07626
Christoph Klimmer	officer: President	177 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 1703, BOSTON MA 02115
Mark Paul Szynkowski	officer: SVP, CFO and Treasurer	44 LAKEVIEW DRIVE, MONROE NY 10950
Igor Volshteyn	director	6470 EAST JOHNS CROSSING, DULUTH GA 30097
Kathleen Mosher	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SEACHANGE INTERNATIONAL, INC., 177 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 1703, BOSTON MA 02115
Peter D Aquino	director, officer: President and C.E.O.	MOTIENT CORP, 300 KNIGHTBRIDGE PARKWAY, LINCOLNSHIRE IL 60069
Michael Prinn	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BRIDGELINE DIGITAL, INC., 10 SIXTH ROAD, WOBURN MA 01801
Steven G Singer	director	2200 FLETCHER AVENUE, SUITE 501, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Robert M Pons	director	439 WILLIAMSON ROAD, GLADWYNE PA 19035
David J Nicol	director	9777 PYRAMID COURT 100, C/O EVOLVING SYSTEMS INC, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Matthew Stecker	director	711 SOUTH BRYN MAWR AVE., BRYN MAWR PA 19010
Marek Kielczewski	officer: Chief Technology Officer	50 NAGOG PARK, ACTON MA 01720
Yosef Aloni	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	50 NAGOG PARK, ACTON MA 01720
Julian D. Singer	director	2200 FLETCHER AVENUE, SUITE 501, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Chad A. Hassler	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	50 NAGOG PARK, ACTON MA 01720