Schlumberger (Schlumberger) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Schlumberger Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Schlumberger (Schlumberger) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Schlumberger Ltd (NYSE:SLB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SLBN:Mexico SLBp:UK 0SCL:UK SLB:France SCL:Germany SCL:Germany SCL:Germany SLBG34:Brazil SLB:Argentina

Address

5599 San Felipe, 17th Floor, Houston, TX, USA, 77056

Website

https://www.slb.com

SLB, formerly known as Schlumberger, is the largest oilfield service firm in the world, with expertise in myriad disciplines, including reservoir performance, well construction, production enhancement, and more recently, digital solutions. It maintains a reputation as one of the industry's leading innovators, which has earned it dominant share in numerous end markets.

Executives

Mogharbel Khaled Al	officer: President Drilling Group	C/O SCHLUMBERGER LIMITED, 5599 SAN FELIPE, 17TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77056
Stephane Biguet	officer: VP Controller	C/O SCHLUMBERGER LIMITED, 5599 SAN FELIPE, 17TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77056
Gavin Rennick	officer: VP, Human Resources	5599 SAN FELIPE, 17TH FL, HOUSTON TX 77056
De La Chevardiere Patrick	director	5599 SAN FELIPE, 17TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77056
Demosthenis Pafitis	officer: Chief Technology Officer	5599 SAN FELIPE, 17TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77056
Kevin Fyfe	officer: VP Controller-Operations	5599 SAN FELIPE, 17TH FL, HOUSTON TX 77056
Katharina Beumelburg	officer: Chief Sustainability Officer	5599 SAN FELIPE, 17TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77056
Howard Guild	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O SCHLUMBERGER LIMITED, 5599 SAN FELIPE, 17TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77046
James T Hackett	director	C/O FLUOR CORPORATION, 6700 LAS COLINAS BLVD, IRVING TX 75039
Rakesh Jaggi	officer: Pres Digital & Integration	5599 SAN FELIPE, 17TH FL, HOUSTON TX 77056
Vijay Kasibhatla	officer: Director, M&A	5599 SAN FELIPE 17 FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77056
Rajeev Sonthalia	officer: President, IPM	5599 SAN FELIPE, 17TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77056
Abdellah Merad	officer: VP Controller, Operations	5599 SAN FELIPE, 17TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77056
Dianne B. Ralston	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O TECHNIPFMC PLC, 11740 KATY FREEWAY, ENERGY TOWER 3, HOUSTON TX 77079
Ugo Prechner	officer: VP Controller	5599 SAN FELIPE, 17TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77056