Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
SMG Industries Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
SMG Industries (SMG Industries) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
State Hwy 249, Suite 450, Houston, TX, USA, 77070
SMG Industries Inc is an oilfield service company that is a growth-oriented midstream, logistics, and oilfield services company that operates throughout the domestic Southwest United States. It offers an expanding suite of products and services across the oilfield market segments of drilling, completion, and production.
Executives
| Timothy W Barnhart |
director, officer: Chief Financial Officer |
9251 WEST MAIN ROAD, NORTH EAST PA 16428 |
| Bryan S Barnhart |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
9251 WEST MAIN ROAD, NORTH EAST PA 16428 |
| Wilson Newton W Iii |
director, 10 percent owner |
C/O KEY ENERGY SERVICES, INC., 1301 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 1800, HOUSTON TX 77010 |
| Frye James E. Jr. |
director, 10 percent owner |
4090 N. HWY US 79, PALESTINE TX 75801 |
| Newton W. Dorsett |
director |
220 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 501, SHREVEPORT LA 71101 |
| Brady E. Crosswell |
director, 10 percent owner |
902 WILD VALLEY ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77057 |
| Steven H Madden |
10 percent owner |
9821 KATY FWY, STE 880, APEX HERITAGE GROUP, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| Allen Ray Parrott |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
10626 SHELDON ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77044 |
| Jeffrey Ralph Martini |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
18226 MEMORIAL SPRINGS CT., TOMBALL TX 77375 |
| Joseph L Page |
director |
8523 OLD QUARRY DR, SUGAR LAND TX 77479 |
| Matthew C Flemming |
director, officer: President, CEO and Chairman |
18614 RESICA FALLS, HOUSTON TX 77094 |
| Stephen Christian |
officer: Executive Vice President |
710 N. POST ROAD, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| Robert Michael Villarreal |
director |
710 N POST OAK ROAD, SUITE 315, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| George W Gilman |
10 percent owner |
710 N. POST OAK RD., SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| Gilbert Michael A. Ii |
director |
851 WYCLIFFE DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77079 |
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