Spirit AeroSystems Holdings (Spirit AeroSystems Holdings) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Spirit AeroSystems Holdings (Spirit AeroSystems Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc (NYSE:SPR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

S9Q:Germany

Address

3801 South Oliver Street, Wichita, KS, USA, 67210

Website

https://www.spiritaero.com

Spirit AeroSystems manufactures aerostructures, particularly fuselages, cockpits, wing sections, engine pylons, and nacelles for commercial and military aircraft. The company was spun out of Boeing in 2005, and the firm is the largest independent supplier of aerostructures for commercial aircraft. Boeing and Airbus are the firm's primary customers—Boeing represented roughly 60% and Airbus roughly 20% of revenue in recent years. The company is highly exposed to Boeing's 737 program, which accounts for nearly half the company's revenue.

Executives

Alan W Young	officer: SVP Fab & Procurement Officer	3801 S. OLIVER, MC K11-60, WICHITA KS 67210
Sean Black	officer: SVP, Engineering	3801 S OLIVER ST, MC K11-60, WICHITA KS 67210
Mindy Mcpheeters	officer: SVP, GC/Corp Sec	3801 S OLIVER ST, MC K11-60, WICHITA KS 67210
Justin Welner	officer: SVP, CAO & CCO	3801 S OLIVER ST, MC K11-60, WICHITA KS 67210
Mark Miklos	officer: SVP, Defense & Space	3801 S. OLIVER, MC K11-60, WICHITA KS 67210
Kailash Krishnaswamy	officer: SVP, Aftermarket	3801 S OLIVER ST, MC K11-60, WICHITA KS 67210
Robert D Johnson	director	HONEYWELL, 1944 E SKY HARBOR CIRCLE, PHOENIX AZ 85034
Ray James R Jr	director	COMMERCIAL VEHICLE GROUP, INC., 7800 WALTON PARKWAY, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Fitzgerald William Augustus Iii	director	3801 S OLIVER, MC K11-60, WICHITA KS 67210
Patrick M Shanahan	director	C/O RESILIENCE CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC, 25101 CHAGRIN BLVD 350, BEACHWOOD OH 44122
Terry J George	officer: SVP, Boeing 737 Program	3801 S OLIVER ST, MC K11-60, WICHITA KS 67210
Damon Christopher Ward	officer: Interim Corporate Controller	3801 S OLIVER ST, MAIL CODE K11-60, WICHITA KS 67210
Stephen Anthony Cambone	director	3801 S OLIVER ST, MC K11-60, WICHITA KS 67210
Mcmullen Victor Rodney Jr	officer: SVP, Wichita & Oklahoma Ops	3801 S OLIVER ST, MAIL CODE K11-60, WICHITA KS 67210
Scott Mclarty	officer: SVP, Airbus Programs	3801 S OLIVER ST, MAIL CODE K11-60, WICHITA KS 67210