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SciQuest (SciQuest) Predictability Rank


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What is SciQuest Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


SciQuest Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

SciQuest Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of SciQuest's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


SciQuest (SciQuest) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
SciQuest Inc was incorporated in November, 1995. The Company provides cloud-based business automation solutions for spend management. Its solutions include spend analytics solutions that cleanse and classify spend data from a wide variety of sources and formats putting data and analytics to work to drive and measure cost savings; sourcing solutions that create events, manage bids and award contracts automatically to simplify and optimize the bidding process; supplier management solutions that facilitate on-boarding, maintaining and managing supplier relationships and give visibility into which suppliers are able to support goals; contract lifecycle management solutions that automate the contract lifecycle from contract authoring, automated workflow approvals to a fully searchable archive of executed contracts; procurement solutions that automate the purchasing process and drive contract compliance; inventory management solutions that facilitate finding, sourcing and tracking chemicals and research supplies; accounts payable solutions that automate the invoice processing and vendor payment processes; and a supplier network that provides a single platform for all supplier interactions. Its spend management solutions provide a return on investment for its customers by facilitating the reduction of spending on goods and services, enhancing visibility and control over spending decisions and practices as well as optimizing the efficiency of key business processes. The procurement, supplier management and accounts payable solutions leverage its managed Company Supplier Network, which facilitates its customers doing business with many thousands of suppliers and spending billions of dollars annually. The Company delivers cloud-based solutions using a Software-as-a-Service, or SaaS, model. The Company offers its customers various services including Client Partners, Supplier Enablement Services, Implementation Services, Customer Support, and Business Process Optimization Services. The Company competes with relatively small specialty software vendors, large ERP vendors and internally developed and maintained solutions. Specialty vendors or niche providers that compete with one or more or the Company's solutions, including Aravo, Basware, BravoSolution, Coupa, Determine, ESM Solutions, GXS, Hubwoo, OB10, Perfect Commerce, Periscope, Verian and Zycus; and Enterprise software application vendors, including SAP AG, Oracle, IBM, Infor and Workday.
Executives
Jeffrey T Barber director 6501 WESTON PARKWAY, SUITE 200 CARY NC 27513
Timothy Buckley director C/O RED HAT, INC, 1801 VARSITY DRIVE, RALEIGH NC 27606
Rudy Howard officer: Chief Financial Officer 322 WINDCHASE LANE, WILMINGTON NC 28409
Noel J Fenton director C/O TRINITY VENTURES, 325 SHARON PARK DR., #458, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Intersouth Affiliates V Lp 10 percent owner 406 BLACKWELL STREET, SUITE 200, DURHAM NC 27701
Intersouth Partners Vi Lp 10 percent owner
Intersouth Partners V, L.p. 10 percent owner 406 BLACKWELL STREET, SUITE 200, DURHAM NC 27701

SciQuest (SciQuest) Headlines

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