Stag Industrial (Stag Industrial) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Stag Industrial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Stag Industrial (Stag Industrial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Stag Industrial Inc (NYSE:STAG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

STAG:Mexico SW6:Germany SW6:Germany S2TA34:Brazil

Address

One Federal Street, 23rd Floor, Boston, MA, USA, 02110

Website

https://www.stagindustrial.com

Stag Industrial Inc is a real estate investment trust that is involved in the acquisition and operation of both single- and multi-tenant properties, although the majority of the portfolio is single-tenant industrial properties throughout the United States. The vast majority of the company's real estate portfolio is comprised of warehouse and distribution buildings. Stag Industrial derives nearly all of its income in the form of rental income from its portfolio of warehouse and distribution properties. The company generates most of its rental revenue from its facilities located in Midwestern and Eastern U.S. cities. Stag Industrial's largest customers include air freight and logistics, automotive, and industrial equipment companies in terms of overall revenue.

Executives

Jaclyn Paul	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	ONE FEDERAL STREET, 23RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Jeffrey M Sullivan	officer: EVP, GC and Secretary	ONE FEDERAL STREET, 23RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
William R Crooker	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	ONE FEDERAL STREET, 23RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Benjamin S Butcher	director, officer: Chairman, CEO and President	ONE FEDERAL STREET, 23RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Steven T. Kimball	officer: EVP	ONE FEDERAL STREET, 23RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Michael Chase	officer: EVP and CIO	ONE FEDERAL STREET, 23RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Hans S Weger	director	ONE FEDERAL STREET, 23RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Michelle Dilley	director	ONE FEDERAL STREET, 23RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Jit Kee Chin	director	ONE FEDERAL STREET, 23RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Jacoby Francis X Iii	director	ONE FEDERAL STREET, 23RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Jeffrey D. Furber	director	AEW CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P., TWO SEAPORT LANE, BOSTON MA 02210
Virgis Colbert	director	5725 DELPHI DRIVE, TROY MI 48098
Christopher P Marr	director	460 E. SWEDESFORD ROAD, SUITE 3000, WAYNE PA 19087
Matts Pinard	officer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer	ONE FEDERAL STREET, 23RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Stephen C Mecke	officer: COO and EVP	ONE FEDERAL STREET, 23RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110