Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Sunoco LP Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Sunoco LP's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Sunoco LP is a Delaware limited partnership formed in June 2012 by Susser Holdings Corporation or SUSS. In September 2012, the Company completed its initial public offering. The Company, along with its wholly owned subsidiary, is an independent motor fuel distributor by gallons in Texas, and among the distributors of Valero and Chevron branded motor fuel in the United States. The Company also receives rental income from real estate that it leases or subleases. SUSS operated approximately 580 retail convenience stores under its proprietary Stripes convenience store brand at year-end, mainly in growing Texas markets. Stripes is an independent chain of convenience stores in Texas based on store count and retail motor fuel volumes sold. Its business is integral to the success of SUSS' retail operations, and SUSS purchases substantially all of its motor fuel from the Company. In addition to distributing motor fuel, it also distributes other petroleum products such as propane and lube oil, and receives rental income from real estate that it leases or subleases. The Company purchases motor fuel mainly from independent refiners and oil companies and distributes it throughout Texas and in Louisiana, New Mexico and Oklahoma. The Company competes mainly with other independent motor fuel distributors. The Company is subject to various federal, state and local environmental laws and regulations, including those relating to underground storage tanks; the release or discharge of hazardous materials into the air, water and soil; the generation, storage, handling, use, transportation and disposal of regulated materials; the exposure of persons to regulated materials; and the remediation of contaminated soil and groundwater.
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