Servotronics (Servotronics) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Servotronics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Servotronics (Servotronics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Servotronics Inc (AMEX:SVT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1110 Maple Street, Post Office Box 300, Elma, NY, USA, 14059

Website

https://www.servotronics.com

Servotronics Inc is a U.S based company that designs, manufactures, and markets technology products consisting of control components and consumer products, consisting of knives and various types of cutlery and other edged products. The company operates in the segments of Technology Group, which is the key revenue-generating segment, and Consumer Products Group. Technology Group operations involve the design, manufacture, and marketing of servo-control components, which include torque motors, control valves, and actuators, among others for government, commercial and industrial applications. Consumer Products Group operations involve the designing, manufacturing, and marketing of a range of cutlery products for use by consumers and government agencies.

Executives

Robert Fraass	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1110 MAPLE STREET, PO BOX 300, ELMA NY 14059
Kenneth D Trbovich	officer: President	1110 MAPLE STREET, ELMA NY 14059
Estate Of Nicholas D. Trbovich, Sr.	10 percent owner	960 PORTERVILLE ROAD, EAST AURORA NY 14052
Brent D Baird	10 percent owner	1350 ONE M&T PLAZA, BUFFALO NY 14203-2396
Evan H Wax	director	44 CHERRY LANE, MADISON CT 06443
Founders Software, Inc.	10 percent owner	401 EAST AMHERST ST, BUFFALO NY 14215
Snyder Paul L. Iii	10 percent owner	401 EAST AMHERST ST, BUFFALO NY 14215
Beaver Hollow Wellness, Llc	10 percent owner	401 EAST AMHERST ST, BUFFALO NY 14215
Edward C Cosgrove	director	525 DELAWARE AVENUE, BUFFALO NY 14202
Lucion P Gygax	director	1110 MAPLE STREET, ELMA NY 14059
Christopher M Marks	director	360 DELAWARE AVENUE, SUITE 230, BUFFALO NY 14202
Karen L Howard	director	C/O SERVOTRONICS, INC., 1110 MAPLE STREET, ELMA NY 14059
Farrell William F Jr.	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1110 MAPLE STREET, PO BOX 300, ELMA NY 14059
Jason T Bear	director	5301 N. COMMERCE AVE., SUITE C, MOORPARK CA 93021
Lisa F Bencel	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1110 MAPLE STREET, ELMA NY 14059