TE Connectivity (TE Connectivity) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TE Connectivity Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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TE Connectivity (TE Connectivity) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » TE Connectivity Ltd (NYSE:TEL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Muhlenstrasse 26, Schaffhausen, CHE, CH-8200

Website

https://www.te.com

TE Connectivity is the largest electrical connector supplier in the world, supplying interconnect and sensor solutions to the transportation, industrial, and communications markets. With operations in 150 countries and over 500,000 stock-keeping units, TE has a broad portfolio that forms the electrical architecture of its end customers' cutting-edge innovations.

Executives

Terrence R Curtin	director, officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O TYCO ELECTRONICS LTD., 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
John S Jenkins	officer: EVP & General Counsel	1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Heath A Mitts	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	1925 WEST FIELD COURT, SUITE 200, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Malavika Sagar	officer: SVP, Chief Human Resources Off	1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Jean-pierre Clamadieu	director	1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Shadrak W Kroeger	officer: Pres., Communications Solution	1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Abhijit Y Talwalkar	director	ONE AMD PLACE, PO BOX 3453, SUNNYVALE CA 94088
Tim Murphy	officer: SVP & CHRO	1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Thomas J Lynch	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	7 LAKEVIEW DRIVE, NEWTOWN PA 19840
Syaru Shirley Lin	director
Robert J Ott	officer: Sr VP & Controller	C/O TYCO ELECTRONICS LTD, 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Steven T Merkt	officer: President, Transportation Sol.	1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Daniel J Phelan	director	C/O TYCO ELECTRONICS LTD., 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Aaron Kyle Stucki	officer: Pres. Communications Solutions	1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Eric Resch	director, officer: SVP and Tax Officer	C/O TYCO ELECTRONICS LTD., 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312