Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (Teva Pharmaceutical Industries) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (Teva Pharmaceutical Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (NYSE:TEVA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TEVJF:USA TEVA:Mexico TEVA:Israel 0LER:UK TEV:Germany TEV:Germany TEV:Germany T1EV34:Brazil TEVA:Austria

Address

124 Dvora HaNevi’a Street, Tel Aviv, ISR, 6944020

Website

https://www.tevapharm.com

Teva Pharmaceutical, based in Israel, is the leading generic drug manufacturer in the world. Teva derives half of its sales from North America and makes up a high-single-digit percentage of the total number of generic prescriptions in the U.S. It also has a significant presence in Europe, Japan, Russia, and Israel. Besides generics, Teva has a portfolio of innovative medicines and biosimilars in three main therapeutic areas: central nervous system with Copaxone, Ajovy and Austedo; respiratory with Qvar and ProAir; and oncology with Truxima, Herzuma, and Bendeka/Treanda. Teva also sells active pharmaceutical ingredients, offers contract manufacturing services, and owns Anda, a U.S.-based generic and specialty drug distributor.

Executives

Dov Bergwerk	officer: Acting Chief Legal Officer	C/O TEVA, 5 BASEL STREET, P.O. BOX 3190, PETACH TIKVA L3 4951033
Vikki L Conway	officer: See "Remarks"	C/O TEVA, 5 BASEL STREET, P.O. BOX 3190, PETACH TIKVA L3 4951033
Varda Shalev	director	MATAM PARK, BUILDING #5, HAIFA L3 3508409
Eliyahu Sharon Kalif	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O TEVA, 5 BASEL STREET, P.O. BOX 3190, PETACH TIKVA L3 4951033
Amir Weiss	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O TEVA, 5 BASEL STREET, P.O. BOX 3190, PETACH TIKVA L3 4951033
Angus Grant	officer: EVP, Business Development	C/O TEVA, 5 BASEL STREET, P.O. BOX 3190, PETACH TIKVA L3 4951033
Eric A Hughes	officer: See "Remarks"	C/O TEVA, 5 BASEL STREET, P.O. BOX 3190, PETACH TIKVA L3 4951033
Sven Dethlefs	officer: EVP Global Marketing&Portfolio	5 BASEL STREET, P.O. BOX 3190, PETACH TIKVA L3 4951033
Eric Drape	officer: Executive VP Global Operations	C/O TEVA, 5 BASEL STREET, P.O. BOX 3190, PETACH TIKVA L3 4951033
David Matthew Stark	officer: Exec. VP Chief Legal Officer	5 BASEL STREET, P.O. BOX 3190, PETACH TIKVA L3 4951033
Richard Daniell	officer: Exec. VP, European Commercial	5 BASEL STREET, PO BOX 3190, PETACH TIKVA L3 4951033
Richard D Francis	officer: President and CEO	IM LANGACHER 44, GREIFENSEE V8 8606
Hafrun Fridriksdottir	officer: Executive VP, Global R&D	400 INTERPACE PARKWAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Eli Shani	officer: EVP,Global Marketing&Portfolio	C/O TEVA, 5 BASEL STREET, P.O. BOX 3190, PETACH TIKVA L3 4951033
Tal Zvi Zaks	director	C/O ADAPTIMMUNE THERAPEUTICS PLC, 60 JUBILEE AVE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON, OXFORDSHIRE X0 OX14 4RX