Take-Two Interactive Software (Take-Two Interactive Software) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Take-Two Interactive Software Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Take-Two Interactive Software (Take-Two Interactive Software) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (NAS:TTWO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TTWO:Mexico TKE:Germany TKE:Germany T1TW34:Brazil TTWO:Austria

Address

110 West 44th Street, New York, NY, USA, 10036

Website

https://www.take2games.com

Found in 1993, Take-Two consists of three wholly owned labels, Rockstar Games, 2K, and Zynga. The firm is one of the world's largest independent video game publishers on consoles, PCs, smartphones, and tablets. Take-Two's franchise portfolio is headlined by "Grand Theft Auto" (345 million units sold) and contains other well-known titles such as "NBA 2K," "Civilization," "Borderlands," "Bioshock," and "Xcom." Zynga mobile titles include "Farmville," "Empires & Puzzles," and "CSR Racing.".

Executives

Daniel P Emerson	officer: General Counsel	622 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012
Lainie Goldstein	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE, INC., 622 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012
Laverne Evans Srinivasan	director	C/O TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE, INC., 622 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012
Strauss Zelnick	director, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O ZELNICKMEDIA, 650 FIFTH AVE 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Michael Sheresky	director	C/O WILLIAM MORRIS AGENCY, 1 WILLIAM MORRIS PLACE, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Karl Slatoff	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O ZELNICKMEDIA CORPORATION, 19 WEST 44TH STREET, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
William B Gordon	director
Ellen F Siminoff	director	555 ELLIS STREET, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Roland A Hernandez	director	300 NORTH SAN RAFAEL AVE, PASADENA CA 91105
Paul E Viera	director	C/O TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE, INC., 110 WEST 44TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10036
Michael Dornemann	director	4950 COMMUNICATION AVENUE, SUITE 300, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Jon J Moses	director	C/O UGO NETWORKS, INC., 670 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012
Seth D Krauss	officer: Exec VP and General Counsel	C/O TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE, INC., 222 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012
Susan Tolson	director	C/O TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE, INC., 622 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019
Carl C Icahn	10 percent owner	C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH-1, SUNNY ISLES BEACH FL 33160