United Fire Group (United Fire Group) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

United Fire Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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United Fire Group (United Fire Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » United Fire Group Inc (NAS:UFCS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

118 Second Avenue SE, Cedar Rapids, IA, USA, 52401

Website

https://www.ufginsurance.com

United Fire Group Inc is engaged in the business of writing property and casualty insurance and selling annuities through a network of independent agencies. The company's only operating segment is property and casualty insurance, which includes commercial lines insurance, personal lines insurance, and assumed reinsurance. The primary source of revenue is premiums and investment income.

Executives

Robert Francis Cataldo	officer: VP & Strategy Officer	118 SECOND AVENUE SE, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52401
Micah G Woolstenhulme	officer: VP	118 2ND AVE SE, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52401
George D Milligan	director	118 2ND AVE SE, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52401
Christopher R Drahozal	director	2001 RIVIERA COURT, LAWRENCE KS 66047-1999
Julie A Stephenson	officer: Executive VP & COO	118 2ND AVE SE, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52401
Eric J Martin	officer: Chief Financial Officer	118 SECOND AVE SE, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52407
Mark A. Green	director	200 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Kevin James Leidwinger	director, officer: Director, CEO	151 N. FRANKLIN, CHICAGO IL 60606
Sarah E Madsen	officer: Chief Legal Officer	118 SECOND AVE SE, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52401
Jeremy Bahl	officer: VP & Chief UW Officer	118 SECOND AVE SE, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52401
Kyle D. Skogman	director	411 FIRST AVENUE SE, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52401
Lura E Mcbride	director	118 2ND AVE SE, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52401
Mary K. Quass	director	2875 MT. VERNON RD SE, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52403
James Noyce	director	5400 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266
Matthew R Foran	director	118 2ND AVE SE, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52401