UFP Industries (UFP Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is UFP Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

UFP Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

UFP Industries Predictability Rank Related Terms

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UFP Industries (UFP Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Forest Products » UFP Industries Inc (NAS:UFPI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UF3:Germany UF3:Germany

Address

2801 East Beltline Avenue NE, Grand Rapids, MI, USA, 49525

Website

https://www.ufpi.com

UFP Industries Inc is a supplier of lumber to the manufactured housing industry. Today UFP Industries is a multibillion-dollar holding company with subsidiaries around the globe that serve three markets: retail, packaging and construction.

Executives

Patrick M. Benton	officer: XVP UFP Eastern Div - North	2801 EAST BELTLINE NE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
William G Currie	director	2801 EAST BELTINE N E, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49505
Michael R Cole	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2801 EAST BELTLINE, N.E., GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
Mary E Tuuk	director	625 KENMOOR AVE SE, SUITE 301, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49456
Bruce A Merino	director	3800 WEST CHAPMAN AVE, ORANGE CA 92868
David A. Tutas	officer: Vice President Legal & Secty	2801 EAST BELTLINE NE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
Matthew J Missad	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	2801 EAST BELTLINE, N.E., GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
Patrick M Webster	officer: Pres. and Chief Operating Off.	2801 EAST BELTLINE NE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
William Danny Schwartz	officer: Exec. VP, Operations Services	2801 EAST BELTLINE AVE NE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
Allen T Peters	officer: President, UFP Western Div	2801 EAST BELTLINE NE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
Benjamin J. Mclean	director	2801 E BELTLINE AVE NE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
Scott T Bravata	officer: Vice President Administration	2801 EAST BELTLINE NE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
Michael G. Wooldridge	director	2801 EAST BELTLINE NE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
Donald L James	officer: XVP National Sales	2801 EAST BELTLINE, N.E., GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
Scott A Worthington	officer: President, UFP Industrial, LLC	2801 EAST BELTLINE NE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525