United Rentals (United Rentals) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

United Rentals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

United Rentals Predictability Rank Related Terms

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United Rentals (United Rentals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » United Rentals Inc (NYSE:URI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UR3:Germany U1RI34:Brazil

Address

100 First Stamford Place, Suite 700, Stamford, CT, USA, 06902

Website

https://www.unitedrentals.com

United Rentals is the world's largest equipment rental company. It principally operates in the United States and Canada, where it commands approximately 17% share in a highly fragmented market. It serves three end markets: general industrial, commercial construction, and residential construction. Like its peers, United Rentals historically has provided its customers with equipment that was intermittently used, such as aerial equipment and portable generators. As the company has grown organically and through hundreds of acquisitions since it went public in 1997, its catalog (fleet size of $21 billion) now includes a range of specialty equipment and other items that can be rented for indefinitely long periods.

Executives

Terri L. Kelly	director	C/O UNITED RENTALS, INC., 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, SUITE 700, STAMFORD CT 06902
Michael D Durand	officer: EVP, Chief Operating Officer	C/O UNITED RENTALS, INC., 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, SUITE 700, STAMFORD CT 06902
Dale A Asplund	officer: Senior V.P.-Business Services	C/O BRIGHTVIEW HOLDINGS, INC., 980 JOLLY ROAD, SUITE 300, BLUE BELL PA 19422
Anthony S. Leopold	officer: SVP	C/O UNITED RENTALS, INC., 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, SUITE 700, STAMFORD CT 06902
Joli L. Gross	officer: SVP, General Counsel	TWO AMERICAN LANE, GREENWICH CT 06831
William E. Grace	officer: VP, Interim CFO	C/O UNITED RENTALS, INC., 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, SUITE 700, STAMFORD CT 06902
Matthew John Flannery	officer: Sr. Vice President- Operations	C/O UNITED RENTALS, INC, 100 FIRST STAMFORD PL, STAMFORD CT 06902
Craig Adam Pintoff	officer: Sr. V.P,, Gen. Counsel & H.R.	C/O UNITED RENTALS, INC, 100 FIRST STAMFORD PL, STE 700, STAMFORD CT 06902
Andrew B. Limoges	officer: VP, Controller	C/O UNITED RENTALS, INC., 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, SUITE 700, STAMFORD CT 06902
Jose B Alvarez	director	STOP & SHOP, 1385 HANCOCK STREET, QUINCY MA 02169
Francisco J Lopez-balboa	director	3280 PEACHTREE ROAD, N.W., ATLANTA GA 30305
Jessica Graziano	officer: Vice President, Controller	C/O UNITED RENTALS, INC, 100 FIRST STAMFORD PL, STAMFORD CT 06902
Shiv Singh	director	C/O UNITED RENTALS, INC., 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, SUITE 700, STAMFORD CT 06902
De Shon Larry D	director	6 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Filippo Passerini	director	C/O UNITED RENTALS, INC, 100 FIRST STAMFORD PL, STAMFORD CT 06902