U.S. Bancorp (U.S. Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

U.S. Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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U.S. Bancorp (U.S. Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

USBpS.PFD:USA USBpQ.PFD:USA USBpP.PFD:USA USBpH.PFD:USA USBpA.PFD:USA USB:Mexico 1USB:Italy UB5:Germany UB5:Germany UB5:Germany USB:Chile USBC34:Brazil USB:Argentina

Address

800 Nicollet Mall, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55402

Website

https://www.usbank.com

As a diversified financial-services provider, U.S. Bancorp is one of the nation's largest regional banks, with branches in roughly 26 states, primarily in the Western and Midwestern United States. The bank offers many services, including retail banking, commercial banking, trust and wealth services, credit cards, mortgages, and other payments capabilities.

Executives

Timothy A Welsh	officer: Vice Chairman	800 NICOLLET MALL, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Terrance R Dolan	officer: EVP, Controller	800 NICOLLET MALL, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Shailesh M Kotwal	officer: Vice Chairman	8501 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 300, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85253
Venkatachari Dilip	officer: SEVP & Chief Info & Tech Off	800 NICOLLET MALL, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
John C Stern	officer: SEVP and CFO	800 NICOLLET MALL, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
James B Kelligrew	officer: Vice Chairman	800 NICOLLET MALL, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Richard P Mckenney	director	UNUM GROUP, 1 FOUNTAIN SQUARE, CHATTANOOGA TN 37402
Scott W. Wine	director	2100 HIGHWAY 55, MEDINA MN 55340
Alan B. Colberg	director	ASSURANT, INC., ONE CHASE MANHATTAN PLAZA, 41 FL., NEW YORK NY 10005
Souheil Badran	officer: SEVP, Chief Operations Officer	800 NICOLLET MALL, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Andrew Cecere	officer: Vice Chairman	800 NICOLLET MALL, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Von Gillern Jeffry H.	officer: Vice Chairman	U.S. BANCORP, 800 NICOLLET MALL, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Lisa R Stark	officer: EVP and Controller	800 NICOLLET MALL, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Loretta E Reynolds	director	800 NICOLLET MALL, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Katherine B Quinn	officer: EVP, Strategy & Corp. Affairs	US BANCORP, 800 NICOLLET MALL, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402