US Energy (US Energy) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

US Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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US Energy (US Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » US Energy Corp (NAS:USEG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UE22:Germany

Address

1616 S. Voss Rd., Suite 725, Houston, TX, USA, 77057

Website

https://www.usnrg.com

US Energy Corp is an independent energy company. It is focused on the acquisition and development of oil and natural gas-producing properties in the continental United States. It has business activities in South Texas and the Williston Basin in North Dakota. The company generates revenue from its interest in the sales of oil and natural gas production.

Executives

Randall D Keys	director	3 HICKORY SHADOWS DR, HOUSTON TX 77055
Mark L. Zajac	officer: Chief Financial Officer	70 SILVERMONT DR, THE WOODLANDS TX 77382
Wallis T Marsh	other: Member of 10% owner group	210 HERITAGE OAKS, HOUSTON TX 77024
King Oil & Gas Company, Inc.	other: Members of 10% owner group	9821 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 805, HOUSTON TX 77024
Wdm Family Partnership, Lp	10 percent owner	210 HERITAGE OAKS LN, HOUSTON TX 77024
Katla Energy Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	1616 S VOSS RD, #530, HOUSTON TX 77057
Synergy Offshore Llc	10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% owner group	9821 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 805, HOUSTON TX 77024
Benjamin Andrew Stamets	10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% owner group	2121 SAGE ROAD, SUITE 325, HOUSTON TX 77056
Lubbock Energy Partners Llc	10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% owner group	1616 S. VOSS RD.,, STE 530, HOUSTON TX 77057
Lee Hightower	10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% owner group	9821 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 805, HOUSTON TX 77024
Duane H King	director, 10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% owner group	9821 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 805, HOUSTON TX 77024
Llano Energy Llc	other: Member of 10% owner group	2121 SAGE ROAD, SUITE 325, HOUSTON TX 77056
Banner Oil & Gas, Llc	10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% owner group	2121 SAGE ROAD, SUITE 325, HOUSTON TX 77056
Joshua Lane Batchelor	director, 10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% owner group	2121 SAGE ROAD, SUITE 325, HOUSTON TX 77056
John A Weinzierl	director, 10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% owner group	MEMORIAL RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT, LLC, 1301 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 2100, HOUSTON TX 77010