1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
United States Lime & Minerals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
United States Lime & Minerals (United States Lime & Minerals) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
5429 LBJ Freeway, Suite 230, Dallas, TX, USA, 75240
United States Lime & Minerals Inc is engaged in the business of manufacturing lime and limestone products including PLS, quicklime, hydrated lime, and lime slurry. It supplies primarily to the construction (including highway, road, and building contractors), industrial (including paper and glass manufacturers), environmental (including municipal sanitation and water treatment facilities and flue gas treatment processes), metals (including steel producers), oil and gas services, roof shingle manufacturers and agriculture (including poultry and cattle feed producers) industries. The company operates lime and limestone plants and distribution facilities in Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas.
Executives
| Timothy Wade Stone |
other: Director - Sales & Marketing |
5429 LBJ FREEWAY; SUITE 230, DALLAS TX 75240 |
| Sandra C Duhe |
director |
5429 LBJ FREEWAY; SUITE 230, DALLAS TX 75240 |
| Timothy W Byrne |
director, officer: President & CEO |
5429 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 230, DALLAS TX 75240 |
| Nathan O'neill |
officer: Vice President |
5429 LBJ FRWY; STE 230, DALLAS TX 75240 |
| Bill Hughes |
officer: Senior Vice President |
5429 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 230, DALLAS TX 75240 |
| Hawkins Tom S Jr |
director |
5429 LBJ FREEWAY; SUITE 230, DALLAS TX 75420 |
| John J Gagnon |
officer: Vice President |
5429 LBJ FREEWAY; SUITE 230, DALLAS TX 75240 |
| Inberdon Enterprises Ltd |
10 percent owner |
1020 789 WEST PENDER ST, VANCOUVER A1 00000 |
| Edward A Odishaw |
director |
5429 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 230, DALLAS TX 75240 |
| George Michel Doumet |
10 percent owner |
#2201 - 2077 NELSON STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6G 2Y2 |
| Richard W Cardin |
director |
5429 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 230, DALLAS TX 75240 |
| Ray M Harlin |
director |
|
| Michael L Wiedemer |
officer: VP & CFO |
5429 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 230, DALLAS TX 75240 |
| M Michael Owens |
officer: Vice President |
5429 LBJ FREEWAY STE 230, DALLAS TX 75240 |
| David Leymeister |
officer: Vice President |
5711 PRESTON OAKS ROAD, #1433, DALLAS TX 75254 |
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