Valaris (Valaris) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2021. Start your Free Trial

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Valaris Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Valaris Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Valaris's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Valaris (Valaris) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Valaris Ltd (NYSE:VAL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2 Church Street, Claredon House, Hamilton, BMU, HM 11

Website

https://www.valaris.com

Valaris Ltd is the industry leader in offshore drilling services across all water depths and geographies. It is a high-quality rig fleet of ultra-deepwater drillships, versatile semisubmersibles and modern shallow-water jackups.

Executives

Grable Colleen	officer: Controller	5847 SAN FELIPE, SUITE 3300, HOUSTON TX 77057
Oak Hill Advisors Lp	10 percent owner	1 VANDERBILT AVE, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Kristian Johansen	director	5847 SAN FELIPE, SUITE 3300, HOUSTON TX 77024
Catherine Hughes	director	5847 SAN FELIPE, SUITE 3300, HOUSTON TX 77057
Matthew Lyne	officer: SVP - CCO	5847 SAN FELIPE, SUITE 3300, HOUSTON TX 77057
Christopher T Weber	officer: SVP - CFO	5 GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77046
Gunnar W. Eliassen	director	C/O QUINTANA MINERALS CORPORATION, 1415 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 2400, HOUSTON TX 77002
Davor Vudakin	officer: SVP & General Counsel	C/O VALARIS LIMITED, CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Darin Gibbins	officer: Interim CFO and VP	5847 SAN FELIPE, SUITE 3300, HOUSTON TX 77057
Anton Dibowitz	director	C/O VALARIS, CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Joseph Goldschmid	director, other: See Remarks	C/O VALARIS, CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 00000
Elizabeth Leykum	director	C/O 5500 TRILLIUM BOULEVARD, SUITE 501, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60192
Deepak Munganahalli	director	C/O VALARIS, CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 00000
Dick Fagerstal	director	C/O SEACOR HOLDINGS INC., 460 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Oak Hill Advisors Genpar, L.p.	10 percent owner	1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036