Vera Bradley (Vera Bradley) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vera Bradley Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vera Bradley (Vera Bradley) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » Vera Bradley Inc (NAS:VRA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

12420 Stonebridge Road, Roanoke, IN, USA, 46783

Website

https://www.verabradley.com

Vera Bradley Inc designs women's handbags, travel items, and accessories. Each category comprises a substantial component of total sales, with the bags category comprising the Most. Most of the company's sales are made directly to customers through Vera Bradley's retail stores and e-commerce sites. The company also has a substantial wholesale business selling to specialty retail and department stores. Almost all company sales are in the United States. Vera Bradley uses third-party manufacturers in Asia to produce its product, and the company distributes the product through its distribution center in Indiana.

Executives

Mary Lou Kelley	director	7601 PENN AVENUE SOUTH, RICHFIELD MN 55423
Michael Schwindle	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	2400 WEST CENTRAL ROAD, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60192
Alison Hiatt	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O VERA BRADLEY, INC., 12420 STONEBRIDGE ROAD, ROANOKE IN 46783
Jacqueline Ardrey	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O VERA BRADLEY, INC., 12420 STONEBRIDGE ROAD, ROANOKE IN 46783
Frances P Philip	director	ONE ALBION ROAD, LINCOLN RI 02865
Edward M Schmults	director	C/O VERA BRADLEY, INC., 2208 PRODUCTION ROAD, FORT WAYNE IN 46808
Robert Wallstrom	director, officer: President & Chief Exec Officer	12 E. 49TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
Daren Hull	officer: Chief Customer Officer	C/O VERA BRADLEY, INC., 12420 STONEBRIDGE ROAD, ROANOKE IN 46783
John Enwright	officer: VP, Interim Chief Fin. Officer	C/O VERA BRADLEY, INC., 12420 STONEBRIDGE RD., ROANOKE IN 46873
Mark C Dely	officer: VP - Chief Legal Off. and Sec.	4300 NEW GETWELL RD, MEMPHIS TN 38118
P. Michael Miller	director, 10 percent owner	C/O VERA BRADLEY, INC., 2208 PRODUCTION ROAD, FORT WAYNE IN 46808
Patricia R. Miller	director, 10 percent owner	C/O VERA BRADLEY, INC., 2208 PRODUCTION ROAD, FORT WAYNE IN 46808
Nancy Twine	director	C/O VERA BRADLEY, INC., 12420 STONEBRIDGE ROAD, ROANOKE IN 46783
James Bradley Byrne	10 percent owner	12 CHURCHILL ROAD, MARBLEHEAD MA 01945
Byrne Thomas Farrell Ii	10 percent owner	13114 PERRY LAKE COURT, FORT WAYNE IN 46845