What is Western Alliance Bancorp Predictability Rank?
5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Western Alliance Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Western Alliance Bancorp (Western Alliance Bancorp) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
One East Washington Street, Suite 1400, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85004
Western Alliance Bancorporation is a Las Vegas-based holding company with regional banks operating in Nevada, Arizona, and California. The bank offers retail banking services and focuses on mortgages for retail customers and commercial loans, mainly for real estate. The bank also has an investment advisory business that manages investment portfolios for Western clients and clients of other banks.
Executives
| Robert P Latta |
director |
650 PAGE MILL ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
| Jessica H Jarvi |
officer: CLO & Secretary |
1 E. WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE1400, PHOENIX AZ 85004 |
| Anthony T Meola |
director |
18400 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 1000, IRVINE CA 92612 |
| Mary E Tuuk |
director |
625 KENMOOR AVE SE, SUITE 301, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49456 |
| Marianne Boyd Johnson |
director |
|
| Tim R Bruckner |
officer: EVP, Chief Credit Officer |
ONE E. WASHINGTON ST., SUITE 1400, PHOENIX AZ 85040 |
| Ardrey J. Kelly Jr. |
officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer |
ONE E. WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 1400, PHOENIX AZ 85004 |
| Kevin M Blakely |
director |
HUNTINGTON CENTER, 41 S. HIGH STREET, COLUMBUS OH 43287 |
| Paul Galant |
director |
88 WEST PLUMERIA DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134 |
| Stephen Russell Curley |
officer: Chief Banking Ofc.-NBL |
5103 E. KELTON LANE, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85254 |
| Emily Nachlas |
officer: Chief Risk Officer |
1 E. WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 1400, PHOENIX AZ 85004 |
| Donald D Snyder |
director |
|
| Patricia L. Arvielo |
director |
8390 EAST CRESCENT PARKWAY, SUITE 650, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111 |
| Dale Gibbons |
officer: EVP and CFO |
2700 W. SAHARA AVE., LAS VEGAS NV 89102 |
| Bryan K Segedi |
director |
1 E WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 1400, PHOENIX AZ 85004 |
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