WD-40 Co (WD-40 Co) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

WD-40 Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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WD-40 Co (WD-40 Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » WD-40 Co (NAS:WDFC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WD1:Germany WD1:Germany

Address

9715 Businesspark Avenue, San Diego, CA, USA, 92131

Website

https://www.wd40company.com

WD-40 Co manufactures and sells lubricants and cleaning products. The firm's product categories include maintenance and cleaning products. Maintenance products include the WD-40 signature brand aerosol spray lubricant as well as degreasers, rust removers, and bicycle maintenance products. Cleaning products include toilet cleaners, carpet stain removers and deodorizers, and heavy-duty hand soaps used to clean grease. The company organizes itself into three segments based on geography: Americas, Europe/Middle East/Africa, and Asia-Pacific. Around half of the company's revenue comes from the Americas segment, which includes the United States, Canada, and Latin America.

Executives

Sara Kathleen Hyzer	officer: VP, Finance & CFO	C/O: WD-40 COMPANY, 9715 BUSINESSPARK AVE., SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Jeffrey G Lindeman	officer: VP, Chief People, Cult. & Cap.	9715 BUSINESSPARK AVENUE, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Phenix Q. Kiamilev	officer: VP, General Counsel & Corp Sec	9715 BUSINESSPARK AVENUE, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Steven A Brass	director, officer: President and CEO	WD-40 COMPANY, 1061 CUDAHY PLACE, SAN DIEGO CA 92110
William B Noble	officer: Group MD, EMEA & Emerging Mkts	BRICK CLOSE, KIIN FARM, MILTON KEYNES X0 MK1 13LJ
Patricia Q Olsem	officer: Division President, Americas	9715 BUSINESSPARK AVENUE, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Cynthia Burks	director	C/O INSPIRE MEDICAL SYSTEMS, INC., 9700 63RD AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 200, MAPLE GROVE MN 55369
Geoffrey Holdsworth	officer: Managing Director AsiaPacific	27 MUNGARRA AVENUE, ST. IVES, SYDNEY C3 2075
Eric Etchart	director	ROOM F, 22F CROSS REGION PLAZA, 899 LINGLING ROAD, SHANGHAI F4 200030
Magee Edward O Jr	director	9715 BUSINESSPARK AVENUE, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Richard T Clampitt	officer: VP, General Counsel	WD-40 COMPANY, 1061 CUDAHY PLACE, SAN DIEGO CA 92110
Garry O Ridge	director, officer: President & CEO	1061 CUDAHY PL, SAN DIEGO CA 92110
Lara L Lee	director	C/O MARRONE BIO INNOVATIONS, INC., 1540 DREW AVENUE, DAVIS CA 95618
Jay Rembolt	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	1061 CUDAHY PL, SAN DIEGO CA 92110
Graciela Monteagudo	director	FOUR CORPORATE DRIVE, LAKE ZURICH IL 60047