1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Westport Fuel Systems Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Westport Fuel Systems (Westport Fuel Systems) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1750 West 75th Avenue, Suite 101, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V6P 6G2
Westport Fuel Systems Inc is an organization engaged in the engineering, manufacturing, and supply of alternative fuel systems and components for transportation applications. It has three operating segments; the Original Equipment Manufacturers segment-design, manufacture, and sell alternative fuel systems, components and electronics, and related engineering services, to OEMs that serve light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty customers, the Independent Aftermarket segment includes IAM products, conversion kits, and components allow for the conversion of vehicles after being sold to the end-user through a network of dealers and installers, and Corporate includes public company activities, corporate oversight, financing, and capital allocation.
Executives
| Eileen Wheatman |
director |
125 EAST SIR FRANCIS DRAKE BLVD., STE 400, LARKSPUR CA 94939 |
| Kevin Douglas |
10 percent owner, other: 13(d)(3) group |
300A DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 200, GREENBRAE CA 94904 |
| Douglas Family Trust |
10 percent owner, other: 13(d)(3) group |
300A DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 200, GREENBRAE CA 94904 |
| James & Jean Douglas Irrevocable Descendants Trust |
10 percent owner, other: 13(d)(3) group |
300A DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 200, GREENBRAE CA 94904 |
| Douglas James E Iii |
10 percent owner, other: 13(d)(3) group |
300A DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 200, GREENBRAE CA 94904 |
| Peter Yu |
director |
C/O CARTESIAN CAPITAL GROUP, 505 FIFTH AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Kgd 2010 Annuity Trust V |
10 percent owner, other: 13(d)(3) group |
125 E. SIR FRANCIS DRAKE BLVD, STE 400, LARKSPUR CA 93939 |
| Mmd 2010 Annuity Trust V |
10 percent owner, other: 13(d)(3) group |
125 E. SIR FRANCIS DRAKE BLVD, STE 400, LARKSPUR CA 93939 |
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