White Mountains Insurance Group (White Mountains Insurance Group) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

White Mountains Insurance Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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White Mountains Insurance Group (White Mountains Insurance Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd (NYSE:WTM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WNI:Germany

Address

23 South Main Street, Suite 3B, Hanover, NH, USA, 03755-2053

Website

https://www.whitemountains.com

White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd is engaged in the business of making opportunistic and value-oriented acquisitions of businesses and assets in the insurance, financial services and related sectors, operating these businesses and assets through its subsidiaries and, if and when attractive exit valuations become available, disposing of these businesses and assets. The company conducts its business in four areas: municipal bond insurance, property and casualty insurance and reinsurance, capital solutions for asset and wealth management firms and other operations. White Mountains's municipal bond insurance business is conducted through its subsidiary HG Global Ltd. and its reinsurance subsidiary HG Re Ltd.

Executives

Weston M Hicks	director	C/O ALLEGHANY CORPORATION, 1411 BROADWAY, 34TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Steven Yi	director	700 SOUTH FLOWER STREET, SUITE 640, LOS ANGELES CA 90017
Michaela Hildreth	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	23 S MAIN STREET, SUITE 3B, HANOVER NH 03755
Peter M Carlson	director	BRIGHTHOUSE FINANCIAL, INC., 11225 NORTH COMMUNITY HOUSE ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Morgan W Davis	director	80 SOUTH MAIN STREET, HANOVER NH 03755
Suzanne F. Shank	director	C/O PENSARE SPONSOR GROUP, LLC, 1720 PEACHTREE STREET, SUITE 629, ATLANTA GA 30309
Mary C Choksi	director
Philip A Gelston	director	80 SOUTH MAIN ST, C/O WHITE MOUNTAINS, HANOVER NH 03755
David Allen Tanner	director	C/O ARLON GROUP LLC, 277 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10172
Margaret Dillon	director	C/O GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC., 2850 DELAWARE ST. STE 400, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Liam P Caffrey	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	23 S MAIN STREET, STE. 3B, HANOVER NH 03755
Robert Lawrence Seelig	officer: EVP & General Counsel
George Manning Rountree	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O 80 SOUTH MAIN STREET, HANOVER NH 03755
Reid Tarlton Campbell	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O WHITE MOUNTAINS INSURANCE GROUP, 80 SOUTH MAIN STREET, HANOVER NH 03755
Lowndes Andrew Smith	director	C/O WHITE MOUNTIAN INSURANCE GROUP, 80 S MIAN ST, HANOVER NH 03755