The Western Union Co (The Western Union Co) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2006. Start your Free Trial

The Western Union Co Predictability Rank Definition

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Western Union Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

The Western Union Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of The Western Union Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

The Western Union Co (The Western Union Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » The Western Union Co (NYSE:WU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

W3U:Germany W3U:Germany WUNI34:Brazil

Address

7001 East Belleview Avenue, Denver, CO, USA, 80237

Website

https://www.westernunion.com

Western Union provides domestic and international money transfers through its global network of about 600,000 outside agents. The company handled over 270 million transactions in 2022 and is the largest money transfer company in the world.

Executives

Estebarena Rodrigo Garcia	officer: President of North America	7001 EAST BELLEVIEW AVENUE, DENVER CO 80237
Suzette Deering	director	7001 EAST BELLEVIEW AVENUE, DENVER CO 80237
Jeffrey A Joerres	director	5301 NORTH IRONWOOD ROAD, MILWAUKEE WI 53217
Giovanni Angelini	officer: Head of Europe and Africa	7001 EAST BELLEVIEW AVENUE, DENVER CO 80237
Matthew Cagwin	officer: Interim Chief Financ. Officer	C/O FIRST DATA CORPORATION, FIRST DATA, 225 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10281
Cherie Axelrod	officer: Chief Enterprise Risk Officer	7001 EAST BELLEVIEW AVENUE, DENVER CO 80237
Benjamin Carlton Adams	officer: Chief Legal Officer & Corp Sec	7001 EAST BELLEVIEW AVENUE, DENVER CO 80237
David Cebollero	officer: Interim Chief Legal Officer	7001 E. BELLEVIEW AVENUE, DENVER CO 80237
Andrew D Walker	officer: Chief Operations Officer	7001 EAST BELLEVIEW AVENUE, DENVER CO 80237
Jean Claude Farah	officer: EVP, President-Global Payments	7001 EAST BELLEVIEW AVENUE, DENVER CO 80237
Devin Mcgranahan	director, officer: CEO & President	255 FISERV DRIVE, BROOKFIELD WI 53045
Gabriella Fitzgerald	officer: President Americas Region	7001 EAST BELLEVIEW AVENUE, DENVER CO 80237
Andrew Summerill	officer: President, Payments (Interim)	7001 EAST BELLEVIEW AVENUE, DENVER CO 80237
Caroline Tsai	officer: EVP, Secretary & Gen. Counsel	7001 EAST BELLEVIEW AVENUE, DENVER CO 80237
Jacqueline D Molnar	officer: Glbl Hd-Transformation & Compl	7001 EAST BELLEVIEW AVENUE, DENVER CO 80237