Weyerhaeuser Co (Weyerhaeuser Co) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Weyerhaeuser Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Weyerhaeuser Co (Weyerhaeuser Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Weyerhaeuser Co (NYSE:WY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WHC:Germany WHC:Germany

Address

220 Occidental Avenue South, Seattle, WA, USA, 98104-7800

Website

https://www.weyerhaeuser.com

Weyerhaeuser ranks among the world's largest forest product companies. Following the 2016 sale of its pulp business to International Paper, Weyerhaeuser operates three business segments: timberlands, wood products, and real estate. Weyerhaeuser is structured as a real estate investment trust and is not required to pay federal income taxes on earnings generated by timber harvest activities. Earnings from its wood products segment are subject to federal income tax. Weyerhaeuser acquired fellow timber REIT Plum Creek in 2016.

Executives

David M Wold	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Keith O'rear	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Denise M Merle	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Devin W Stockfish	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
James Calvin O'rourke	director	C/O THE MOSAIC COMPANY, 101 EAST KENNEDY BLVD., SUITE 2500, TAMPA FL 33602
Albert Monaco	director	#3000, 425 - 1ST STREET SW, CALGARY A0 T2P 3L8
Travis A Keatley	officer: Senior Vice President	220 OCCIDENTAL AVE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Adrian M Blocker	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Nancy S. Loewe	officer: Senior Vice President and CFO	351 PHELPS DRIVE, IRVING TX 75038
Russell S Hagen	officer: Senior Vice President and CFO	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Deidra C Merriwether	director	100 GRAINGER PARKWAY, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Nicole Weyerhaeuser Piasecki	director	2000 WELLS FARGO PLACE, 30 EAST 7TH STREET, SAINT PAUL MN 55101-4930
James A Kilberg	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Marc F Racicot	director	1411 E. MISSION AVENUE, SPOKANE WA 99202
Lawrence A Selzer	director	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104