Wynn Resorts (Wynn Resorts) Predictability Rank

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What is Wynn Resorts Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Wynn Resorts Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Wynn Resorts Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Wynn Resorts (Wynn Resorts) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Wynn Resorts Ltd (NAS:WYNN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WYNN:Mexico WYR:Germany WYR:Germany WYR:Germany

Address

3131 Las Vegas Boulevard South, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89109

Website

https://www.wynnresorts.com

Wynn Resorts operates luxury casinos and resorts. The company was founded in 2002 by Steve Wynn, the former CEO. The company operates four megaresorts: Wynn Macau and Encore in Macao and Wynn Las Vegas and Encore in Las Vegas. Cotai Palace opened in August 2016 in Macao, and Encore Boston Harbor in Massachusetts opened June 2019. We expect the company to open a new building next to its existing Wynn Palace resort in around 2028. The company also operates Wynn Interactive, a digital sports betting and iGaming platform. The company received 76% and 24% of its 2019 prepandemic EBITDA from Macao and Las Vegas, respectively.

Executives

Julie Cameron-doe	officer: CFO	C/O WYNN RESORTS, LIMITED, 3131 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD S., LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Ellen F Whittemore	officer: EVP and General Counsel	C/O WYNN RESORTS, LIMITED, 3131 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Craig Scott Billings	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O WYNN RESORTS, LIMITED, 3131 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Patricia Mulroy	director	C/O WYNN RESORTS LIMITED, 3131 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Paul Albert Liu	director	C/O WYNN RESORTS, 3131 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Betsy S Atkins	director
Matt Maddox	officer: President	C/O WYNN RESORTS LTD, 3145 LAS VEGAS BIVD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Darnell O. Strom	director	C/O WYNN RESORTS, LIMITED, 3131 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD S., LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Philip G Satre	director
Richard J Byrne	director	350 PARK AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Robert Jos Miller	director	6363 SOUTH FIDDLERS GREEN CIRCLE, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Margaret Jane Myers	director	C/O WYNN RESORTS, LIMITED, 3131 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Winifred Markus Webb	director	9330 BALBOA AVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Stephen A Wynn	10 percent owner	3131 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Kimmarie Sinatra	officer: EVP/General Counsel/Secretary	C/O WYNN RESORTS LIMITED, 3131 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109