Yum Brands (Yum Brands) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1997. Start your Free Trial

What is Yum Brands Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Yum Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Yum Brands Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Yum Brands's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Yum Brands (Yum Brands) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Yum Brands Inc (NYSE:YUM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

YUM:Mexico TGR:Germany TGR:Germany TGR:Germany YUMR34:Brazil YUM:Austria

Address

1441 Gardiner Lane, Louisville, KY, USA, 40213

Website

https://www.yum.com

Yum Brands is a U.S.-based restaurant operator featuring a portfolio of four brands: KFC (27,760 global units at year-end 2022), Pizza Hut (19,034 units), Taco Bell (8,203 units), and The Habit Burger Grill (346 units). With $59 billion in 2022 systemwide sales, the firm is the second-largest restaurant company in the world behind McDonald's ($116 billion), ahead of Restaurant Brands International ($39 billion) and Starbucks ($27 billion). Yum is 98% franchised, with the largest franchisee, Yum China, spun out in 2016 (after which Yum China agreed to pay 3% royalties to Yum Brands in perpetuity). Yum is the newest evolution of Tricon, formerly a division of PepsiCo, and generates the bulk of its revenue from franchise royalties and marketing contributions.

Executives

David W Gibbs	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	7100 CORPORATE DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024
Mark James King	officer: CEO - Taco Bell	1441 GARDINER LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40213
M. Brett Biggs	director	702 SW 8TH STREET, BENTONVILLE AR 72716
Susan Doniz	director	C/O THE BOEING COMPANY, 100 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, MC 5003-1001, CHICAGO IL 60606-1596
Graddick Weir Mirian M	director	2000 GALLOPING HILL ROAD, KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Scott Catlett	officer: General Counsel and Corp. Sec.	1441GARDINER LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40213
Tracy L Skeans	officer: Chief People Officer	1441 GARDINER LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40213
David Eric Russell	officer: Vice President, Controller	1441 GARDINER LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40213
Sabir Sami	officer: Chief Executive Officer - KFC	1441 GARDINER LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40213
Anthony Lowings	officer: CEO, KFC Division	1441 GARDINER LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40213
Aaron Powell	officer: CEO - Pizza Hut	P.O. BOX 619100, DALLAS TX 75261-9100
Lauren R Hobart	director	345 COURT STREET, CORAOPOLIS PA 15275
Greg Creed	officer: President Taco Bell	1441 GARDINER LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40213
Scrivner Annie Young	director	2401 UTAH AVE. S. SUITE 800, SEATTLE WA 98134
Keith Barr	director	BROADWATER PARK, DENHAM, BUCKINGHAMSHIRE X0 UB9 5HR