Zions Bancorp NA (Zions Bancorp NA) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Zions Bancorp NA Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Zions Bancorp NA Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Zions Bancorp NA (Zions Bancorp NA) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Zions Bancorp NA (NAS:ZION) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ZIONO.PFD:USA ZIONP.PFD:USA ZB1:Germany Z1IO34:Brazil

Address

One South Main Street, Salt Lake City, UT, USA, 84133-1109

Website

https://www.zionsbancorporation.com

Zions Bancorporation is a regional U.S. bank with core operations that span 11 states. The bank is headquartered in Salt Lake City and does business primarily in the Western and Southwestern United States. Zions primarily focuses on providing banking services to small and midsize businesses, with the majority of its loans focused on commercial and commercial real estate lending.

Executives

Keith D Maio	officer: President of subsidiary bank	ONE SOUTH MAIN, SUITE 1134, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Steven Dan Stephens	officer: Executive Vice President	ONE SOUTH MAIN STREET, 15TH FLOOR, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84133-1109
Scott J Mclean	officer: Executive Vice President	4400 POST OAK PARKWAY, 4TH FL, HOUSTON TX 77027
A Scott Anderson	officer: Executive Vice President	ONE SOUTH MAIN, SUITE 1134, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Randy R Stewart	officer: Exec VP	1 S MAIN STREET, 11TH FLOOR, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84133
Bruce K Alexander	officer: Exec VP and, Pres. of Subsidiary	ONE SOUTH MAIN, SUITE 1134, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Alan M Forney	officer: Exec VP & Pres. Of Subsidiary	ONE S MAIN STREET, 11TH FL, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84133
Mark Richard Young	officer: Exec VP, other: Pres. of Subidiary	ONE SOUTH MAIN STREET, 15TH FLOOR, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84133-1109
Thomas E Laursen	officer: Sr. Vice President &, General Counsel	ONE SOUTH MAIN, SUITE 1134, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Derek Steward	officer: Executive Vice President	1 S MAIN ST, 11TH FL, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84133-1109
Shannon R. Drage	officer: Senior Vice President	1 S MAIN STREET, 11TH FL, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84133-1109
Rebecca K Robinson	officer: Executive Vice President	ONE SOUTH MAIN STREET, 15TH FLOOR, SALT LAKE CITY X1 84133
Claire A Huang	director	1 S MAIN STREET, 11TH FL, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84133
Harris H Simmons	director, officer: Chairman, President, & CEO	ZIONS BANCORPORATION, ONE MAIN STREET, SUITE 1134, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Paul E. Burdiss	officer: Executive Vice President, other: & Chief Financial Officer	ONE SOUTH MAIN STREET, 15TH FLOOR, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84133