Air Transport Services Group (Air Transport Services Group) Free Cash Flow

: $-139 Mil (TTM As of Dec. 2023)

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Air Transport Services Group's total free cash flow for the months ended in Dec. 2023 was $-84 Mil. Its total free cash flow for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ended in Dec. 2023 was $-139 Mil.

Air Transport Services Group's Free Cash Flow per Share for the months ended in Dec. 2023 was $-1.26. Its free cash flow per share for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ended in Dec. 2023 was $-2.01.

Please click Growth Rate Calculation Example (GuruFocus) to see how GuruFocus calculates Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT)'s revenue growth rate. You can apply the same method to get the Free Cash Flow Growth Rate using Free Cash Flow per Share data.

During the past 13 years, Air Transport Services Group's highest 3-Year average Free Cash Flow per Share Growth Rate was 139.80% per year. The lowest was -58.20% per year. And the median was -15.30% per year.

Air Transport Services Group Free Cash Flow Historical Data

The historical data trend for Air Transport Services Group's Free Cash Flow can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Air Transport Services Group Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Free Cash Flow

-56.56

1.89

78.81

-127.31

-139.37

Air Transport Services Group Quarterly Data
	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23
Free Cash Flow																-77.02	-2.42	-1.93	-50.90	-84.12

Air Transport Services Group Free Cash Flow Calculation

Free Cash Flow is considered one of the most important parameters to measure a company's earnings power by value investors because it is not subject to estimates of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization (DDA). However, when we look at the Free Cash Flow, we should look from a long term perspective, because any year's Free Cash Flow can be drastically affected by the spending on Property, Plant, & Equipment (PPE) of the business in that year. Over the long term, Free Cash Flow should give pretty good picture on the real earnings power of the company.

Air Transport Services Group's Free Cash Flow for the fiscal year that ended in Dec. 2023 is calculated as

Free Cash Flow (A: Dec. 2023 )	=	Cash Flow from Operations	+	Capital Expenditure
	=	654.081	+	-793.447
	=	-139

Air Transport Services Group's Free Cash Flow for the quarter that ended in Dec. 2023 is calculated as

Free Cash Flow (Q: Dec. 2023 )	=	Cash Flow from Operations	+	Capital Expenditure
	=	127.988	+	-212.107
	=	-84

Free Cash Flow for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ended in Dec. 2023 adds up the quarterly data reported by the company within the most recent 12 months, which was $-139 Mil.

Air Transport Services Group (NAS:ATSG) Free Cash Flow Explanation

Free Cash Flow is very close to Warren Buffett's definition of Owner's Earnings, except that in Warren Buffett's Owner's Earnings, the spending for Property, Plant, and Equipment is only for maintenance (replacement), while in the Free Cash Flow calculation, the cost of new Property, Plant, and Equipment due to business expansion is also deducted. There, Free Cash Flow is more conservative than Owner's Earnings.

In Don Yacktman's calculation of forward rate of return, he uses Free Cash Flow for the calculation. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation.

This is what Yacktman said in his March 2012 interview - when the S&P 500 was at 1400:

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over seven years. The reason we use seven years is because research shows that seven years is the length of the typical business cycle.

Therefore, as of Dec23, Air Transport Services Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is

Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % (Dec23)	=	Normalized Free Cash Flow	/	Price	+	5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
	=	-0.55161905	/	17.61	+	0.0691
	=	3.78 %

Be Aware

Free Cash Flow within a report period can be affected by management's decisions of capital spending. Therefore, it is important to look at long term when it comes to Free Cash Flow.

Air Transport Services Group Free Cash Flow Related Terms

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Air Transport Services Group (Air Transport Services Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Air Transport Services Group Inc (NAS:ATSG) » Definitions » Free Cash Flow

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ATSG:Mexico

Address

145 Hunter Drive, Wilmington, OH, USA, 45177

Website

https://www.atsginc.com

Air Transport Services Group Inc along with its subsidiaries operates within the airfreight and logistics industry. It leases aircraft and provides airline operations, ground services, aircraft modification and maintenance, and other support services mainly to the cargo transportation and package delivery industries. The company has two reportable segments namely Cargo Aircraft Management and ACMI Services (Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, and Insurance). It generates a majority of its revenue from the ACMI services segment.

Executives

Koharik Edward Joseph Iii	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Johns Raymond E Jr	director	C\O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Michael L Berger	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C\O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Jeffrey J Vorholt	director	13 VIA ROMA, PALM COAST FL 32137
Amazon Com Inc	10 percent owner	410 TERRY AVENUE NORTH, SEATTLE WA 98109
Matthew E. Fedders	officer: VP, Corporate Controller	C/O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Paul Chase	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Joseph C Hete	officer: President & CEO
W Joseph Payne	officer: Sr. VP, General Counsel & Sec.	ABX AIR INC, 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Quint O Turner	officer: Chief Financial Officer	145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Jeffrey A. Dominick	director	ABX HOLDINGS, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Randy D Rademacher	director	ABX AIR, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
John Christopher Teets	director	C/O RED MOUNTAIN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC., 10100 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 925, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Richard Francis Corrado	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Phyllis J Campbell	director	C/O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177