Progressive's total free cash flow for the
months ended in Dec. 2023 was
$2,355 Mil.
Its total free cash flow for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ended in Dec. 2023 was $10,391 Mil.
Progressive's Free Cash Flow per Share for the
months ended in Dec. 2023 was $4.01.
Its free cash flow per share for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ended in Dec. 2023 was $17.69.
During the past 12 months, the average Free Cash Flow per Share Growth Rate of Progressive was 58.40% per year.
During the past 3 years, the average Free Cash Flow per Share Growth Rate was 15.90% per year.
During the past 5 years, the average Free Cash Flow per Share Growth Rate was 9.50% per year.
During the past 10 years, the average Free Cash Flow per Share Growth Rate was 20.90% per year.
Please click Growth Rate Calculation Example (GuruFocus) to see how GuruFocus calculates Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT)'s revenue growth rate. You can apply the same method to get the Free Cash Flow Growth Rate using Free Cash Flow per Share data.
During the past 13 years, Progressive's highest 3-Year average Free Cash Flow per Share Growth Rate was 51.10% per year. The lowest was -14.20% per year. And the median was 7.70% per year.
Progressive Free Cash Flow Historical Data
The historical data trend for Progressive's Free Cash Flow can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
* Premium members only.
Progressive Annual Data
Trend
Dec14
Dec15
Dec16
Dec17
Dec18
Dec19
Dec20
Dec21
Dec22
Dec23
Free Cash Flow
5,898.10
6,682.10
7,518.20
6,556.80
10,391.30
Progressive Quarterly Data
Jun19
Sep19
Dec19
Mar20
Jun20
Sep20
Dec20
Mar21
Jun21
Sep21
Dec21
Mar22
Jun22
Sep22
Dec22
Mar23
Jun23
Sep23
Dec23
Mar24
Free Cash Flow
2,406.30
2,246.60
3,383.20
2,355.20
-
Progressive Free Cash Flow Calculation
Free Cash Flow is considered one of the most important parameters to measure a company's earnings power by value investors because it is not subject to estimates of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization (DDA). However, when we look at the Free Cash Flow, we should look from a long term perspective, because any year's Free Cash Flow can be drastically affected by the spending on Property, Plant, & Equipment (PPE) of the business in that year. Over the long term, Free Cash Flow should give pretty good picture on the real earnings power of the company.
Progressive's Free Cash Flow for the fiscal year that ended in Dec. 2023 is calculated as
Free Cash Flow for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ended in Dec. 2023 adds up the quarterly data reported by the company within the most recent 12 months, which was $10,391 Mil.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Free Cash Flow Explanation
Free Cash Flow is very close to Warren Buffett's definition of Owner's Earnings, except that in Warren Buffett's Owner's Earnings, the spending for Property, Plant, and Equipment is only for maintenance (replacement), while in the Free Cash Flow calculation, the cost of new Property, Plant, and Equipment due to business expansion is also deducted. There, Free Cash Flow is more conservative than Owner's Earnings.
In Don Yacktman's calculation of forward rate of return, he uses Free Cash Flow for the calculation. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation.
This is what Yacktman said in his March 2012 interview - when the S&P 500 was at 1400:
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over seven years. The reason we use seven years is because research shows that seven years is the length of the typical business cycle.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Be Aware
Free Cash Flow within a report period can be affected by management's decisions of capital spending. Therefore, it is important to look at long term when it comes to Free Cash Flow.
Progressive Free Cash Flow Related Terms
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Progressive's Free Cash Flow provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Progressive underwrites private and commercial auto insurance and specialty lines; it has about 18 million personal auto policies in force and is one of the largest auto insurers in the United States. Progressive markets its policies through independent insurance agencies in the U.S. and Canada and directly via the internet and telephone. Its premiums are split roughly equally between the agent and the direct channel. The company also offers commercial auto policies and entered homeowners insurance through an acquisition in 2015.
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