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ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (NYSE:ARR)
Altman Z-Score
-1.17 (As of Today)

Warning Sign:

Altman Z-score of -1.17 is in distress zone. This implies bankrupcy possibility in the next two years.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc has a Z-score of -1.17, indicating it is in Distress Zones. This implies bankrupcy possibility in the next two years.

The zones of discrimination were as such:

When Z-Score is less than 1.81, it is in Distress” Zones.
When Z-Score is greater than 2.99, it is in Safe Zones.
When Z-Score is between 1.81 and 2.99, it is in Grey” Zones.

ARR' s 10-Year Altman Z-Score Range
Min: -1.16   Max: 3.28
Current: -1.17

-1.16
3.28

During the past 7 years, ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc's highest Altman Z-Score was 3.28. The lowest was -1.16. And the median was -0.90.


Definition

Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc's Altman Z-Score for today is calculated with this formula:

Z=1.2*X1+1.4*X2+3.3*X3+0.6*X4+1.0*X5
=1.2*-0.8517+1.4*-0.0481+3.3*-0.0488+0.6*0.0964+1.0*0.0267
=-1.17

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) ended in Jun. 2014:
Total Assets was $17,624.8 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $662.6 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $15,673.9 Mil.
Retained Earnings was $-848.5 Mil.
Pretax Income was -70.19 + -19.778 + -540.776 + -229.953 = $-860.7 Mil.
Interest Expense was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $0.0 Mil.
Revenue was 113.892 + 123.082 + 121.228 + 112.418 = $470.6 Mil.
Market Capitalization (Today) was $1,510.9 Mil.
Total Liabilities was $15,673.9 Mil.

X1=Working Capital/Total Assets
=(Total Current Assets - Total Current Liabilities)/Total Assets
=(662.616 - 15673.867)/17624.75
=-0.8517

X2=Retained Earnings/Total Assets
=-848.544/17624.75
=-0.0481

X3=Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets
=(Pretax Income + Interest Expense)/Total Assets
=(-860.697 + 0)/17624.75
=-0.0488

X4=Market Value Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities
=Market Capitalization/Total Liabilities
=1510.925/15673.867
=0.0964

X5=Revenue/Total Assets
=470.62/17624.75
=0.0267

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Distress” Zones - 1.81 < “Grey” Zones < 2.99 - “Safe” Zones

ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc has a Z-score of -1.17 indicating it is in Distress Zones.

Study by Altman found that companies that are in Distress Zone have more than 80% of chances of bankruptcy in two years.


Explanation

X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.

X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.

X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm’s assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.

X4, Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MVE/TL): The measure shows how much the firm’s assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.

X5, Revenue/Total Assets (S/TA): The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm’s assets.

Read more about Altman Z-score and the original research.


Be Aware

Z score does not apply to financial companies.


Related Terms

Total Assets, Total Current Assets, Total Current Liabilities, Retained Earnings, Pretax Income, Interest Expense, Revenue, Market Capitalization, Total Liabilities, Financial Strength


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc Annual Data

Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13
X1 -0.03560.96420.1692-0.8709-0.7679-0.8041-0.8102
X2 0.00350.0054-0.0094-0.0032-0.0163-0.0072-0.0409
X3 0.0060.0125-0.01220.0053-0.00150.0106-0.0119
X4 1.77623.41940.18040.11670.12060.10770.1037
X5 00.02170.00390.00780.0020.01480.0321
Z-score 1.053.280.26-0.95-0.87-0.86-0.97
Zones Distress” ZonesSafe ZonesDistress” ZonesDistress” ZonesDistress” ZonesDistress” ZonesDistress” Zones

ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc Quarterly Data

Mar12Jun12Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14
X1 -0.8531-0.8608-0.8365-0.8041-0.7794-0.8435-0.8231-0.8102-0.8234-0.8517
X2 -0.0064-0.0108-0.0077-0.0072-0.00470.0111-0.0024-0.0409-0.0406-0.0481
X3 0.00370.00290.00550.01060.00930.03120.0266-0.0119-0.0174-0.0488
X4 0.08240.10660.11230.10770.09750.07950.10070.10370.09270.0987
X5 0.00650.0120.01170.01880.01610.02070.03020.03210.02810.0267
Z-score -0.96-0.96-0.92-0.86-0.84-0.83-0.81-0.97-1.02-1.16
Zones Distress” ZonesDistress” ZonesDistress” ZonesDistress” ZonesDistress” ZonesDistress” ZonesDistress” ZonesDistress” ZonesDistress” ZonesDistress” Zones
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